In this enlightening discussion, Alex Edlich, a senior partner at McKinsey specializing in private equity, and Christopher Croke, a partner leading the Private Capital Practice in London, unpack the latest trends in the private equity landscape. They highlight a rebound in dealmaking and strategies for value creation amid changing market dynamics and rising interest rates. The duo also explores the resilience of mid-market funds, innovative investment strategies, and the shifts in industry metrics, emphasizing a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2024.
In 2024, private equity exhibited resilience with a 14% rebound in transaction values, particularly in larger buyouts across North America and Europe.
Amidst fundraising challenges, innovative strategies like separately managed accounts are attracting capital, reflecting limited partners' renewed confidence in private equity's long-term potential.
Deep dives
Emerging Resilience in Private Equity
The private equity industry is showing signs of resilience as it begins to emerge from the challenging years of 2022 and 2023. A notable rebound in transaction values was observed in 2024, with a 14% increase overall, marking it as the third most active year on record. Larger buyouts experienced particularly strong growth, and despite a decline in the number of transactions, significant recovery in value was evident, especially in North America and Europe, highlighting an adaptive market responding positively to changing conditions. Additionally, the exit backlog reached unprecedented levels, suggesting a future readiness by firms to navigate upcoming liquidity challenges.
Challenges and Opportunities in Fundraising
Fundraising efforts in the private equity sector faced increasing difficulties, with traditional commingled funds seeing a 24% decrease in 2024 compared to the previous year. This challenge varies across fund sizes, with mid-market funds displaying resilience amidst a broader trend of decline. The average time to close funds has lengthened significantly, indicating tighter investor scrutiny and increased competition for capital. Despite these obstacles, some innovative fundraising avenues have emerged, including the heightened interest in separately managed accounts and alternative investment strategies that are beginning to draw significant capital flows.
Shifts in Value Creation Strategies
The approach to value creation within private equity is evolving due to changing market circumstances. Firms are increasingly unable to depend on leverage and market expansion for returns, prompting a shift towards more sustainable, organic growth strategies instead. Sponsors are also reevaluating and refreshing their value creation plans regularly throughout their holding periods, rather than solely at the beginning or end. This proactive approach allows for enhancements in operational efficiency and revenue generation, ensuring private equity firms remain competitive and capable of achieving robust returns.
The Role of Limited Partners and Market Confidence
Limited partners are demonstrating a renewed confidence in private equity as an asset class, as evidenced by an increase in target allocations. In 2024, distributions exceeded capital calls for the first time since 2015, reflecting a shift in the importance of return of capital. Despite a challenging fundraising environment, limited partners expressed a strong interest in increasing their commitments to private equity, driven by the expectation of better risk-adjusted returns and improved performance in the future. This confidence underscores a resilient outlook for the private equity sector, even amid ongoing industry challenges.
Despite persistent uncertainty in global markets, 2024 was the year that private equity began to emerge from a multi-year fog, with a rebound in dealmaking and distributions. Our Global Private Markets Report for 2025 revealed an industry that is more resilient, more innovative, and perhaps stronger than before. To discuss the nuances of that report we are joined by two of the report’s authors, Alex Edlich and Christopher Croke.
Alex is a senior partner in our New York office where he helps private equity and financial services clients achieve superior performance, by driving innovation with new technology. He is a senior leader in our Financial Services, Private Capital, and Digital Practices. Christopher Croke is a partner in our London office, where he is a leader in our Private Capital Practice. He advises private equity firms on their investments and strategy and helps the companies they own with their strategy and value creation.