Why is the US economy doing so much better than Europe?
Sep 25, 2024
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Steve Keen, a prominent economist known for his insights on financial instability, joins to discuss the stark economic differences between the US and Europe post-COVID. He emphasizes that the US's proactive government spending, like the Inflation Reduction Act, has fueled recovery while Europe struggles under rigid fiscal rules. Keen critiques misconceptions about national debt and highlights how US housing market dynamics boost consumer spending, in contrast to Germany's stagnation. The conversation dives into innovation, labor strategies, and the need for a rethink on economic policies.
The US economy's stronger recovery is largely due to aggressive deficit spending and fiscal policies that differ significantly from Europe’s restrained approach.
The contrasting employment support strategies during the pandemic have led to divergent labor market dynamics, impacting the agility of the US and EU economies.
Deep dives
US Economic Growth Post-Pandemic
The US economy has demonstrated significant growth since the pandemic, expanding from $21.7 trillion to $23.4 trillion, representing a 7.5% increase. This contrasting performance to the European Union, which saw only a 4.1% growth from 14.5 trillion euros to 15.1 trillion, highlights a stark difference in economic recovery. A major factor contributing to this disparity is the US government's willingness to maintain higher levels of deficit spending without the same level of alarm over national debt that is prevalent in Europe. Consequently, this sustained government spending has boosted economic activity in the US more effectively than the more conservative fiscal policies seen in Europe, particularly in Germany, which is currently experiencing recessionary conditions.
Government Spending and Monetary Policy
The discussion emphasizes how US fiscal strategies have diverged from those in Europe, particularly regarding government debt perception and spending practices. In the US, the national debt increased by almost 50% from $22.7 trillion to $34 trillion, while the EU's debt rose by only 13% during the same period. This approach has enabled continued government spending which, rather than being seen as detrimental, is viewed as a mechanism to drive economic growth and improve cash flows to bondholders. In contrast, persistent austerity measures in Europe have contributed to stagnation, with leaders avoiding aggressive spending that could stimulate their economies.
Furlough vs. Unemployment Benefits
The US and EU adopted notably different strategies during the pandemic regarding employee support, affecting economic recovery trajectories. The EU's furlough system preserved jobs by paying up to 80% of salaries, while the US opted for unemployment benefits, leading to a peak unemployment rate of 14.8% in the US, compared to 8.6% in the EU. Critics argue that the EU's approach merely delayed necessary economic restructuring, allowing businesses that may not have survived to stay afloat. Conversely, the US strategy, which encouraged a shift in the labor market by allowing for high unemployment rates, has potentially fostered a more agile and responsive economy post-pandemic.
Inflation and Consumer Behavior
Inflation trends in the US and Europe reveal that, while overall inflation is declining, service sector inflation remains stubbornly high, affecting consumer behavior. The US has witnessed a core inflation rate that, when excluding food and energy, remains a concern as it reflects strong demand in services. This persistent inflation in sectors tied to personal services reflects the broader issue of income distribution and labor market dynamics. Factors such as rising costs in the service industry coupled with insufficient wage growth for many workers contribute to an uneven economic recovery, complicating the inflation narrative across different regions.
Europe and the US are both recovering from the same problem – COVID and the inflation that followed. But last week the Fed in the US dropped interest rates by half a percent, with markets expecting a soft-landing for the US economy. Europe, meanwhile, is struggling, with Germany’s economy heading backwards for more than a year. So, when the big difference when both economies are coming from the same place? Steve Keen tells Phil Dobbie that the US would be struggling just as much if it restricted itself to the Maastricht rules on fiscal policy and government debt. Instead, Joe Biden spent big on the Inflation Reduction Act.