Debunking Economics - the podcast

The small number of technologists who increasingly control the planet’s wealth and political and social agenda are, it seems, big supporters of UBI. Elon Musk is at the forefront of this push. And why wouldn’t he be? His vision is a future of unbounding economic growth, in which the work of humans is almost completely replaced by robots, leaving us all plenty of time to pursue interests, engage in deep philosophical thought or, more likely, get fat watching daytime TV with no sense of purpose. This week Phil and Steve look at the consequences of Musk’s vision and discuss the one factor Musk has yet to answer – where does the money come from? Steve says the tech bros don’t seem to grasp the workings of fiat money creation, which h might be part of the answer. But Phil is more concern ed about the power that Musk and his brethren wield. Do we need to redefine capitalism, so the power of these feudal tech lords is diluted by working cooperatives, to ensure technology is used for the betterment of society and not leading to a hunger games future? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

18th century economist Richard Cantillon theorised that new money added to the economy always reaches the wealthiest people first. If there’s a lot of it, the extra supply will push up prices, but the rich won’t feel it, they’ll just create it. The impact down the track is that the poor, surviving with the same money as before, get hit with the higher prices. Phil suggests that wouldn’t be the case if extra money was created through government spending. It would be the workers and those on welfare getting the first touch of the new money. But, as Steve explains, most money created through government deficits is counteracted by the private sector buying up the government’s bonds. Most of the new money is created through private debt - bank loans, for example. So Cantillon was right.The way to fix the problem s to put in place policies that would see more of a balance between public and private sector money creation. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Phil and Steve pick up from last week’s discussion about the merits of central planning. Last time they talked about how big companies, like Walmart in the US, plan centrally, yet free marketeers have a problem with that sort of coordination being applied to the free market. This week Phil asks how you can ensure that government planning can ensure resources are allocated effectively. For example, isn’t there a risk that you’ll use raw materials and labour to satisfy the wants of the very rich, before you have met the needs of the very poor? How do we arrive at a hybrid approach that works? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In one of his many walks around his neighbourhood Phil has been listening to a book, The People's Republic of Walmart, by Leigh Phillips & Michal Rozworski. Basically, a contrarian economist and a journalist teaming up together. Could such a combination ever really work?The book highlights how part of Walmart’s success story was its meticulous central planning, in contrast to Sears, a business decimated by an adherence to a market based internal structure. 30 internal division competed for resources, including shelf space.Clearly, Walmart’s focus on delivery helped it succeed. So, shouldn’t the same approach be used in the broader economy? When should we choose planning over open market competition?   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lesotho (pronounced ,li-su-tu0 is a small African nature that President Trump  threatened with 50% tariffs, describing as a country nobody had ever heard of. Maybe that’s enough for his disciples to dismiss the hardship tariffs will place on the country, where youth unemployment is rife and the minimum wage is US$100 per month. Phil says twenty years ago America was trying to help countries like Lesotho, with tariff free trade to help the economy grow. Why? Because as Steve points out, if developing countries grow, they will buy more American goods. Cut their trade off at source and people suffer. Or Lesotho, and other developing nations, develop closer ties with China and expedites its path to being the largest economy in the world. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

There is a huge reliance on data to aid decision making – whether it’s Investors wanting to know where to move money, central banks pretending to understand the economy, governments making policy decisions or companies planning for their future. Sadly, data collection faces two challenges. One is a lack of sufficient government spending. As Steve points out, perhaps Texas would be more prepared for the horrendous flooding of the last few weeks, if they hadn’t sacked so many meteorologists. The other problem is the increasing unwillingness of the public and businesses to complete surveys. Fortunately, as Phil points out, data is now being collective more from primary sources -like bank records or store transactions. That’s a big step forward, but a lot of data is based on answering traditional questions, like what’s our GDP? It’s base don conventional thinking. Phil asks whether we should be paying more attention to money supply whilst Steve says understanding company mark-ups would also be a good predictive indicator. What data sets do you think are missing? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In real terms the amount the UK spends on healthcare has risen from £500 in 1970 to £3,000 per person today. That’s a massive increase, but the payback has been that we are living 10 years longer. Ask people if they would be prepared to spend 10% of their income to live ten years longer, most would say yes. Yet we have a real problem in having the government spending more on healthcare.As always, it gets back to the question of where is the money coming from? A government provided healthcare system is funded with government created money. A privatised system is vying for a share of your pay packet, using money that is already in circulation.Phil and Steve discuss how our approach to healthcare is based on the standard question of, ‘where does the money come from?’, rather than ‘what can we be doing to make everyone’s life that much better?’ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Financial markets don’t like it when governments announce plans to spend more money. That’s why there’s concern over Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which will add, by some accounts, $4 trillion to the US budget deficit over the next decade. Steve Keen says it’s not a problem. Banks buy up the bonds and the central bank ensures they have the liquidity to do so.  In which case, why are people ditching US bonds in favour of other sovereign debt elsewhere? And isn’t there a risk that higher treasury yields will reduce the differential with corporate bonds, which could discourage investment in the real economy? As Phil and Steve nut it out, they both agree, Trump’s bill is a bad one when it comes to income distribution. It assumes trickle down economics. When has that ever worked? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The discussion centers on the declining dominance of the U.S. dollar, which has dropped from 71% to 58% in foreign reserves. It highlights the motivations behind de-dollarization, particularly China's shifting role. The complexities of currency dynamics and speculative trading are explored, revealing their impact on international relations and economic stability. A look at alternatives to the dollar and the potential rise of a tech-driven currency system adds depth to the conversation. Historical shifts in financial practices also provide insight into future possibilities.

The podcast dives into the concept of manufacturing fetishism, highlighting its global implications and questioning the wisdom of government support for a sector that may not yield the best economic outcomes. Discussions revolve around the challenges facing American manufacturing, including skill loss and inefficiencies, contrasted with Japan's resilience. The narrative critiques protective tariffs and incentives, urging a balanced view of manufacturing's role versus the service economy. Listeners are encouraged to consider how personal values intersect with economic choices.