What's really going on inside Beijing's Black Box?
Mar 22, 2024
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Exploring the uncertainties in Xi Jinping's leadership amid economic challenges in China. Discussing the evolving diplomatic landscape and power struggles. Analyzing Australia-China relations and the Orcus Agreement. Reflecting on former prime minister meetings and changing dynamics in Chinese society. Navigating China's geopolitical landscape with insights on leadership roles. Recommendations on Cold War documentaries and China's history.
Xi Jinping's leadership in China faces uncertainty due to economic challenges and demographic shifts.
China is adapting its foreign policy to enhance global influence with less confrontational approaches in international relations.
Deep dives
China's Political Situation and Economic Decline
China's political situation under Xi Jinping is under scrutiny, with signs of potential trouble emerging. The country's economic boom seems to be slowing down due to demographic challenges like population decline and fewer economic opportunities for the younger generation.
Xi Jinping's Concerns and Public Opinion
Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership are attentive to the concerns of the growing middle class, realizing the importance of addressing issues like job security, affordable education, and economic stability. Public discontent, highlighted by COVID-19 responses, underscores the need for the government to prioritize social well-being.
Implications for China's Political Power
The impact of economic changes on the Communist Party's grip on power is a key consideration. Maintaining economic growth has historically reinforced the party's authority. However, shifting circumstances and societal demands are prompting a reassessment of policies to ensure support from China's middle-class demographic.
Future of China's International Relations
China's foreign policy strategies are evolving, with a focus on enhancing global influence while promoting dependence on China's economy. Despite tensions, recent diplomatic gestures like Wang Yi's visit to Australia suggest a shift towards less confrontational approaches in international relations.
When it comes to Chinese politics, reading the tea leaves is never easy. In this episode Hamish and Geraldine are joined by Rana Mitter, the man dubbed the 'rockstar' of China studies by former PM Kevin Rudd, to break open the black box of the Politburo and reveal just how stable (or unstable) Xi Jinping's leadership is, given the economic and demographic headwinds that China is facing.
Guest: Rana Mitter - ST Lee Chair in US-Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Recommendations:
Rana - Listening: Face-Off: US vs China podcast, dropping on April 9.
Hamish - Reading: Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750 by Odd Arne Westad
Geraldine - Watching: Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War docuseries on Netflix