Kara Calvert on US Crypto Policy, BTC Price Action, and Onchain Trends
Oct 29, 2024
auto_awesome
Kara Calvert, Coinbase’s Head of US Policy, shares insights on how the upcoming US election could shape crypto regulation, considering political scenarios like Trump versus Harris. Joshua Pak discusses BTC price movements, CME open interest, and spot ETF inflows. David Duong analyzes earnings from major firms and key economic indicators. David Han highlights growth in on-chain DEX volumes, especially Solana's rise. Insights on policy shifts and crypto community mobilization during elections round out this captivating discussion.
The upcoming US elections could significantly reshape crypto regulation, with contrasting approaches anticipated under different administrations like Trump and Harris.
Bitcoin's recent price surge ahead of the elections highlights investor optimism, driven by significant ETF inflows and its perceived value as an inflation hedge.
Deep dives
Impact of Crypto on US Elections
The upcoming US elections have sparked considerable interest from the crypto community, indicating that cryptocurrency is now a factor in political discourse. Organizations like Stand With Crypto have mobilized nearly 1.8 million advocates, preparing for direct engagement with policymakers and voter turnout efforts. In key swing states like Georgia and Arizona, the number of crypto advocates has the potential to exceed the electoral margins from previous elections, showcasing the growing influence of this demographic. The active involvement of crypto owners in the electoral process demonstrates the broader implications of regulatory decisions on the political landscape.
Election Uncertainties and Assemblies
With just days until the election, uncertainty lingers regarding when results will be known, particularly in closely contested swing states. While some states may tally their votes and provide results on election night, others might take longer due to the influx of absentee ballots and razor-thin margins. For example, the outcome in the House and Senate races could be delayed as margins are extremely tight, indicating a potentially tumultuous political landscape. Preparing for various scenarios, policymakers are closely monitoring the voting patterns of the estimated 52 million crypto owners in America who may influence the election's outcome.
Future of Crypto Regulation
The future of crypto regulation appears set to change depending on the outcome of the elections, with differing approaches anticipated from potential administrations. Donald Trump has signaled intentions to fire the current SEC chair, Gary Gensler, and implement regulations that aim to protect digital asset ownership and ensure stablecoins operate within a responsible framework. On the other hand, Vice President Kamala Harris seems open to exploring innovation within the crypto space while also emphasizing consumer protection. This divergence in regulatory philosophy suggests that the fate of crypto legislation, including stablecoin regulations, hinges on the electoral outcomes.
Market Reactions and Trends
Market reactions ahead of the elections indicate optimism for Bitcoin, seen as a hedge against inflation amidst particularly volatile economic conditions. Significant ETF inflows have driven Bitcoin prices above 71,000, showing investor confidence ahead of the vote. Meanwhile, altcoins like Solana have experienced varied price movements driven by specific market events and trading activity. As trading volumes on decentralized exchanges rise, there remains a noted contrast between Bitcoin's performance and that of altcoins as they navigate different drivers of demand.
In this episode, we kick off with an exclusive interview featuring Coinbase’s Head of US Policy Kara Calvert about how the upcoming election could reshape the crypto regulatory landscape. Don’t miss her outlook on the future of crypto policy under different political scenarios.
Our expert panel also breaks down bitcoin’s latest price movements, US spot ETF inflows, and the shifting dynamics between ETH and SOL. David Duong walks us through a busy earnings season, focusing on major market movers like Apple, Google and Microsoft, while highlighting key macro drivers. David Han wraps up the episode with an analysis of the rising traction in Solana and Base DEX volumes.
**Special Interview with Kara Calvert:**
- How crypto regulation might unfold under Trump vs Harris. - The possibility of leadership changes at different executive agencies. - The shape of crypto policy over the next two years.
**Market Update with Joshua Pak:** - CME open interest trends, spot bitcoin ETF inflows, and trading desk flows. - Unlock updates and the divergence between ETH and SOL. - Onchain revenue trends and correlations to BTC.
**Macro Insights with David Duong:** - Earnings updates: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta—impacting nearly a quarter of the S&P 500. - Key economic indicators: Non-farm payrolls and JOLTs report insights.
**Onchain Section with David Han:** - Blobs developments & Pectra upgrade - Traction update on Farcaster. - Solana DEX volumes up +19% WoW and Base DEX growth at +15% WoW.
**Host:** Ben Floyd, Head of Execution Services
**Panelists:** David Duong, Head of Institutional Research David Han, Research Analyst Joshua Pak, CES Sales Trader