Run the Numbers Emergency Capital Markets Update: Stubhub IPO (Take 2)
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Aug 16, 2025 This discussion delves into StubHub's upcoming IPO, highlighting the contrast between favorable market conditions and the company's declining performance. Experts analyze the intricate dynamics of timing versus actual results in public offerings. Is market sentiment king, or does performance take precedence? The implications for companies preparing to go public are significant, raising questions about strategy and timing in uncertain financial landscapes.
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StubHub's Comeback Despite Weaker Numbers
- StubHub originally filed in March 2025 then paused due to tariff and macro concerns before refiling in August.
- Their Q1 2025 metrics show clear deterioration versus FY2024, yet they're rehitting the IPO market now.
Performance Deteriorated Across Key Metrics
- StubHub's growth, revenue, and margins declined sharply from FY2024 to Q1 2025.
- Quarterly GMV fell from $2.5B to $2.0B and growth decelerated from 60% to 10% year-on-year.
Market Momentum Can Trump Weak Quarters
- Market sentiment and recent successful consumer IPOs have reopened the IPO window.
- Timing the market can outweigh a temporary hit in company performance when deciding to list.