The 4 Factors That Will Determine Which Spot Bitcoin ETFs Win Market Share - Ep. 591
Jan 5, 2024
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Spencer Bogart from Blockchain Capital discusses the potential winners in the spot Bitcoin ETF market and its impact on companies like MicroStrategy and Coinbase. The role of authorized participants, seed funding, and distribution in ETFs. Challenges to Bitcoin ETF approval, such as lawsuits and competition. Projections for BlackRock and Bitwise as market leaders. Investigation into the Orbit Bridge heist and a possible connection to the Lazarus Group.
Institutional players like Goldman Sachs becoming authorized participants in spot Bitcoin ETFs is seen as a bullish indicator.
Competitive fees, distribution, brand recognition, and liquidity are key factors in determining the success of Bitcoin ETFs.
Deep dives
ETF Approval and Implications
The podcast discusses the potential approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and how it could benefit Coinbase as the custodian of the majority of filings. The ETFs are expected to drive additional trading volume and custody fees to Coinbase. The presence of institutional players like Goldman Sachs as authorized participants in the ETFs is seen as a bullish indicator. Fee competition among the ETF issuers is also expected, with lower fees attracting more investors. The podcast highlights the importance of distribution, brand recognition, liquidity, and expense ratios in determining the success of the ETFs.
Challenges and Concerns
The podcast touches on the various challenges and concerns surrounding the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. The significance of meetings between the SEC and major exchanges is discussed as an indication of progress towards launch. However, a report casting doubt on the approval of ETFs caused a temporary drop in Bitcoin's price. The podcast highlights the lack of new information in the report and suggests that the market may have been overextended in the short term, leading to a reaction to negative news. The potential impact of political factors and ongoing legal issues for issuers like Grayscale is also mentioned.
Factors Affecting ETF Success
The podcast delves into the factors that could influence the success of Bitcoin ETFs. It emphasizes the importance of competitive fees, distribution through registered investment advisors (RIAs), brand recognition, and liquidity. The seed funding provided by some ETF issuers is seen as crucial in seeding initial liquidity. RIAs' selection of ETFs for their clients' portfolios is heavily influenced by availability on their platforms. BlackRock is viewed as a major contender due to its brand and distribution capabilities, while Bitwise is credited for its relationships with RIAs. Additionally, the impact of fees and the potential compression of premiums on stocks like MicroStrategy, given the availability of ETFs, is discussed.
Competition and Future of ETFs
The podcast examines the potential impact of ETFs on other financial products. It suggests that spot Bitcoin ETFs are likely to pose significant competition to futures-based products due to their lower fees and avoidance of underperformance from rolling futures contracts. The limitations of leverage ETFs for retail investors are identified, as they are more suitable for short-term trading by hedge funds and prop traders. The future of ETFs is seen as winner-take-most, with issuers like BlackRock and Bitwise projected to be frontrunners, given their brand, distribution, and liquidity capabilities. Nonetheless, the overall impact of ETFs on the crypto market in the short and long term remains uncertain.
The past few days have been a busy stretch in the run-up to a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC. Goldman Sachs was revealed as a possible authorized participant (AP) for BlackRock and Grayscale’s offerings, the SEC met with representatives of major stock exchanges, and a report skeptical of an imminent SEC approval likely caused a 7% decline in Bitcoin. Spencer Bogart, general partner at venture capital firm Blockchain Capital, joined Unchained to break down what all of these events mean, as well as discuss who the likely winners will be among ETF issuers, the impact of a spot bitcoin ETF on companies such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase, and how a spot ETF will affect Bitcoin futures ETFs and leveraged crypto ETFs.
Show highlights:
Why the newly authorized participants in the spot Bitcoin ETFs are critical for maintaining the ETF’s price alignment
The reasons behind the excitement over Goldman Sachs becoming an authorized participant in the spot Bitcoin ETFs
How the Matrixport report led to a 7% drop in BTC value
The importance of seed funding for ETFs and its impact on their stability and growth
The pivotal role of distribution in an ETF and why Spencer emphasizes its significance
Whether the fees charged by ETF issuers will become a decisive factor for consumers in choosing their preferred ETF
The potential impact of changes in the Grayscale board on its aspirations to launch an ETF
How the introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF might influence BITO, the futures-based Bitcoin ETF
Whether the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF could affect the stock value of MicroStrategy
Spencer's reasoning behind why Coinbase stands to "absolutely benefit" from the introduction of a spot Bitcoin ETF