More or Less: Behind the Stats Reason, numbers and Mr Spock
Aug 28, 2021
Julia Galef, author of 'The Scout Mindset,' joins Tim Harford to delve into how our human impulses often cloud rational thinking. They explore the wisdom of Mr. Spock from Star Trek, illustrating his misguided confidence in statistical predictions. The conversation highlights the differences between the scout and soldier mindsets, emphasizing objective truth-seeking over the comfort of familiar beliefs. They also discuss the importance of calibrating confidence in forecasts and recognizing uncertainty in decision-making.
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Scout vs. Soldier Mindset
- The scout mindset prioritizes accurate and objective observation, even if unpleasant.
- The soldier mindset, conversely, defends pre-existing beliefs, rejecting contradictory evidence.
Spock's Predictions
- Julia Galef analyzed Spock's predictions in Star Trek and found them inversely correlated with reality.
- The less likely Spock deemed an event, the more likely it occurred.
Quantify Uncertainty
- Quantify uncertainty by assigning numerical probabilities to beliefs.
- This promotes a more accurate and nuanced understanding than black-and-white thinking.
