Ep 322 | Everyone Is Wrong About the New Deal | Guest: George Selgin
Mar 5, 2025
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George Selgin, a leading economist at the Cato Institute and author of "False Dawn," delves into the complexities of the New Deal. He challenges the binary views of Roosevelt as either savior or villain, arguing that misconceptions cloud its economic impact. The discussion highlights the New Deal's non-Keynesian nature and its lagging recovery effects due to hostility toward private industry. Selgin also connects historical monetary theories to modern concepts like Bitcoin, exploring alternatives to traditional banking systems.
The New Deal's failure to spark economic recovery was largely due to Roosevelt's hostility towards private industry rather than Keynesian principles.
Post-World War II, the shift towards a cooperative government-business relationship significantly fostered private investment and economic growth.
Deep dives
The Insights on Free Banking and Monetary Policy
Research in monetary economics highlights that many issues within banking systems stem from regulations rather than inherent market failures. The discussion emphasizes that reducing misguided regulations could address most banking problems instead of adding new layers of complexity. Historical analysis shows that prior to government interventions, banking systems operated more effectively. This insight stems from examining various monetary crises and how regulatory frameworks have directly influenced economic stability.
Challenging the New Deal Narrative
The role of the New Deal in recovering from the Great Depression is re-examined to reveal that it did not provide the expected economic recovery. Two dominant views are critiqued: one claiming the New Deal's Keynesian programs facilitated recovery and the other attributing recovery solely to World War II spending. However, evidence suggests that the New Deal policies did not significantly boost economic activity, and unemployment remained high throughout its duration. Ultimately, the real driver of recovery was a change in the government's attitude towards business, which improved private investment post-war.
World War II's Impact on Economic Attitudes
World War II played a pivotal role in reshaping the government-business relationship, transitioning from hostility to a more cooperative dynamic. This shift fostered a climate conducive to private investment that had previously been stifled during the New Deal. As businesses felt more secure and supported, investment surged, allowing for economic recovery following wartime production. The historical context indicates that the cooperative approach during wartime laid the groundwork for sustained economic growth in the subsequent peacetime economy.
Lessons from the Great Depression and Keynesianism
The discussion connects the lessons of the Great Depression to contemporary economic policy debates, particularly concerning military spending. Contrary to the prevailing Keynesian critique during WWII, which warned of potential economic collapse without continued government spending, historical outcomes revealed that recovery was driven by private investment rather than state expenditure. This challenges modern arguments suggesting artificial stimulants, such as government contracts during military engagements, are vital for economic health. Ultimately, the revival of private enterprise post-war exemplifies that confidence in the regulatory environment can be more significant than government spending in achieving economic stability.
Nearly a century after President Franklin Delano Roosevelt spearheaded a sweeping set of economic policies known as the New Deal, the debate still rages over whether he was a hero or a villain. Defenders of the New Deal credit it with ending the Great Depression and pioneering a number of important social programs. Detractors claim it prolonged the Depression due to the reckless government spending demanded by Keynesian economics. Matt Kibbe sits down with George Selgin, author of "False Dawn," who argues that both of these viewpoints miss important details about the New Deal and its impact on the economy. In the first place, it was not particularly Keynesian in its approach to spending. Instead, it was Roosevelt's hostility toward private industry that delayed America's recovery for so long.
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