Do you really know? What is the optimism bias?
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Dec 15, 2025 Explore the intriguing concept of optimism bias, where 80% of people mistakenly believe they're less likely to face negative events. Discover why our brains prioritize positive experiences and how this can lead to reduced stress and better health. However, there are pitfalls: underestimating risks and complacency can have serious consequences, especially regarding climate change. The discussion emphasizes the importance of balancing a positive outlook with realism for healthier decision-making.
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Widespread Bias From Positive Updates
- About 80% of people show optimism bias, expecting fewer negatives and more positives than others.
- Tali Sharot notes we update beliefs more from positive than negative information, making optimism persistent.
Optimism Helps Health And Motivation
- Optimism can improve mental and physical health by lowering stress and boosting immunity.
- Expecting success motivates goal pursuit and can act as a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing resilience.
Counter Overconfidence With Feedback
- Balance optimism with realism to avoid complacency and blind spots in judgment.
- Seek feedback and learn from mistakes to prevent overconfidence harming performance or teamwork.