Immigration Cuts Could Push Canada into Hard Landing- w/ Ben Rabidoux
Mar 29, 2024
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Economic analyst Ben Rabidoux discusses the impact of proposed immigration cuts on Canada's economy, housing market, and rental growth. Topics include potential rate cuts, mortgage stress tests, renters bill of rights, and implications of population growth changes. Conversation touches on indicators of economic downturn, educational institution restructuring, and the ethical complexities of immigration policies.
Reducing non-permanent residents may lead to a sharp decline in population growth rates affecting rental markets and inflation.
Decrease in non-permanent residents could trigger a deep recession, potential rate cuts, and economic challenges for businesses.
Unmet promises to non-permanent residents pose ethical dilemmas, discontent, and potential national security concerns in Canada.
Deep dives
Impacts of Reduced Non-Permanent Residents on Population Growth
The podcast episode delves into the significant impact of reducing non-permanent residents on population growth in Canada. Currently, the population has been growing by around 1.3 million, mainly driven by temporary workers and international students. However, with the government's plan to decrease the share of non-permanent residents to 5% within three years, a sharp decline is expected. This reduction could lead to a substantial drop in population growth rates, potentially from 3.2% to 0.6%, significantly affecting various sectors like rental markets and inflation.
Economic Ramifications of Population Dynamics
The podcast also discusses the broader economic consequences of these population dynamics on the Canadian economy. The expected decline in non-permanent residents could contribute to a deep recession and necessitate potential rate cuts in the near future. With the shift from rapid population growth to a significant decrease, businesses are likely to experience challenges, such as reduced borrowing and increases in insolvencies. This shift could prompt discussions around monetary policy adjustments and the overall economic outlook.
Ethical and Social Challenges for Canada
Furthermore, the episode highlights the ethical and social challenges arising from the promises made to non-permanent residents, particularly students seeking permanent residency. These individuals have come to Canada under false pretenses and face the risk of not receiving the promised permanent residency. This situation may lead to significant discontent among affected individuals, potentially creating a national security concern. The episode sheds light on the ethical complexities and potential implications of unmet promises and their impact on labor markets and productivity in Canada.
Impact of Immigration on Economy and Housing Market
The podcast discussion delves into the impact of immigration on the economy and housing market in Canada. It highlights how international students and non-permanent residents have been lured with false promises, turning them into cash cows for big businesses seeking cheap labor. This irresponsible population expansion is seen as a significant contributor to various issues faced in Canada over the years, including challenges in managing the growing population and its repercussions on the housing market.
Predictions on Economic Softening and Rental Market Changes
The conversation also touches on predictions related to economic softening and changes in the rental market. The podcast anticipates potential effects on rental growth, resale supply, and speculation in the housing market. Insights are shared on rental market listings, with expectations of rental growth slowing down and potential shifts in supply to the resale market. The discussion extends to wage impacts and investment dynamics tied to shifts in the labor market and population growth scenarios.
Immigration Minister announces big cuts to population growth. How will this slow the economy and rents? Rabidoux thinks the Bank of Canada will have to cut rates more than expected. OSFI keeps the mortgage stress test on lender switches. Trudeau announces renters bill of rights.