Forward Guidance The Fed's Hawkish Cut & The Financial Hunger Games | Weekly Roundup
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Oct 31, 2025 This week, the discussion dives deep into the Fed's recent meeting, exploring the end of quantitative tightening and its implications for the financial landscape. The hosts analyze the stark divergence between private and public markets, highlighting how memes and retail trading behaviors are reshaping investing dynamics. They also tackle the rising capital expenditures in AI, questioning whether this will spark new industries or lead to market bubbles. Finally, they consider the concentration of wealth and power in institutions, reflecting on the future of investing.
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Public Markets A Ghost Town
- Felix recounts how public markets became algorithm-dominated while industrial innovation shifted private.
- He likens public equities to a ghost town with real innovation happening in private markets.
Fed Split Dampens December Cut Odds
- The Fed cut 25bps but showed deep internal disagreement, with dissenters favoring 50bps and no cuts.
- Powell warned December cuts are not guaranteed, reducing market's dovish pricing.
Retail Gamma Amplifies A Concentrated Market
- Retail flows into OTM calls create transient squeezes that amplify short-term moves.
- Machine-driven passive holdings concentrate float and make these squeezes more impactful.