CIO Global Livestream - New Year’s Portfolio Resolutions
Dec 14, 2023
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UBS Chief Investment Office members, including Mark Haefele and Leslie Falconio, discuss their New Year's portfolio resolutions for 2024. Topics covered include the Fed's predictions for slowing growth, concerns over US debt and Treasury market impact, the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and inflation trends, outlook for emerging market stocks and debt in 2024, and monitoring American consumer spending and New Year's resolutions.
The Fed's outlook suggests that growth and inflation will slow in 2024, leading to eventual policy easing.
In Europe, high-quality investment-grade bonds and Eurozone equities are attractive investment options with potential for favorable returns.
Deep dives
Key Points on Fed's Outlook
The Fed's outlook indicates that both growth and inflation will slow into 2024, leading to eventual policy easing. Factors such as falling CPI, slowing job growth, and a potential decrease in consumer savings contribute to this expectation. The market, however, is pricing in a rate cut by the Fed, but the Fed is likely to maintain a hold, with the expectation of a higher for longer approach.
Investment Opportunities for US Dollar Investors
For US dollar investors, it is recommended to lock in carry and invest in longer-term interest rate embedded sectors. Sectors such as investment-grade corporates are expected to benefit from price appreciation and offer higher interest rate components. Quality sectors and longer-duration assets are also highlighted as favorable investment options.
Investment Opportunities in Europe and Switzerland
In Europe, investment opportunities include high-quality investment-grade bonds with low volatility and potential for 6-7% returns. Eurozone equities are attractive with the potential for re-rating and double-digit returns. Consumer sectors, both stable and discretionary, are particularly favored. In Switzerland, the Swiss equity market offers defensive stocks with attractive dividend yields. Investments in the Swiss franc, both USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, can provide extra returns by playing the trading range. Swiss real estate funds focused on residential property are also considered safe and long-duration assets.
Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office, including Mark Haefele, Leslie Falconio, Themis Themistocleous, and Daniel Kalt, as they outline their New Year’s portfolio resolutions for 2024.
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