Freakonomics Radio 606. How to Predict the Presidency
122 snips
Oct 11, 2024 
In this engaging discussion, Eric Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago, and Koleman Strumpf, an economist at Wake Forest University, dive into the accuracy of betting markets versus traditional polls for predicting elections. They explore the potential chaos of a second Trump term and the historical skepticism surrounding democracy, linking it to contemporary political dynamics. The conversation also touches on the evolution of electoral betting markets and the implications of crypto-based platforms on election integrity and forecasting.
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Presidential Power Reconsidered
- Eric Posner admits to being glib about presidential power in his earlier assessments.
- He now recognizes that a strong president can lead to bad governance and chaos, not just dictatorship.
Trump's Ineffectiveness
- Trump's presidency was a shock to Posner.
- Trump's goals were largely unachieved due to his temperament and lack of focus.
Contrasting Trump and Biden
- Trump tested presidential power's limits but lacked the temperament and experience for effective governance.
- Biden has been more successful at achieving policy goals through conventional means.