In this engaging discussion, Eric Posner, a law professor at the University of Chicago, and Koleman Strumpf, an economist at Wake Forest University, dive into the accuracy of betting markets versus traditional polls for predicting elections. They explore the potential chaos of a second Trump term and the historical skepticism surrounding democracy, linking it to contemporary political dynamics. The conversation also touches on the evolution of electoral betting markets and the implications of crypto-based platforms on election integrity and forecasting.
Betting markets may offer more timely and accurate predictions for elections compared to traditional polling methods that lag behind events.
Eric Posner expresses a shift in perspective regarding presidential power, highlighting the chaotic governance associated with Trump's unpredictable leadership style.
The rise of demagogues in contemporary politics raises concerns for U.S. democracy, emphasizing the dangers of division and crises in society.
Deep dives
The Privacy and Security of Apple Card
Apple Card offers users the privacy and security that are standard with Apple products, aiming to enhance user trust and satisfaction. It allows users to earn up to 3% daily cash back on purchases, incentivizing users to adopt the service due to its financial benefits. Opening a high-yield savings account through the Apple Card can lead to automatic interest earnings on those cash back rewards. This combination of security and financial incentives positions Apple Card as a competitive alternative in the financial technology market.
The Impact of Therapy During Hectic Times
The end of the year often brings increased stress from work, family obligations, and holiday pressures, leading many to experience nervous system overload. Therapy is presented as an effective way to understand and address the underlying sources of such stress, promoting mental wellness. BetterHelp offers accessible therapy through various formats such as phone, video, and chat, making it easier for individuals to seek help. Engaging in therapy can enhance emotional health, especially during challenging periods.
Evolving Views on Presidential Power
Eric Posner reflects on how his views of presidential power have shifted since discussing it in 2016, particularly in the context of Donald Trump's presidency. Initially optimistic about the potential for a powerful presidency, he now expresses concerns about both dictatorial tendencies and chaotic governance. He points out that Trump’s unpredictability and lack of focus led to many of his goals being unfulfilled, indicating a blend of opportunism and incompetence in wielding presidential powers. Posner's analysis suggests that the risks associated with a strong presidency extend beyond dictatorship to include detrimental governance.
The Role of Demagoguery in American Politics
Posner defines a demagogue as a politician who seeks power by dividing people, often by creating enemies among different groups. He considers Trump a quintessential example of a demagogue whose tactics resonate with historical instances seen in Greek democracy. Current political climates characterized by dissatisfaction and crisis can nurture the rise of demagogues, fostering cycles of division and strife. This phenomenon raises important questions about the health of democracy in the U.S. and the ongoing relevance of constraints within the political system.
Rethinking Election Predictions in a Changing Landscape
The limitations of traditional polling methods are increasingly acknowledged, prompting exploration into betting markets as a more accurate predictive tool for elections. These markets reportedly respond more rapidly to real-time events and developments, providing immediate insights into public sentiment. Historically effective at forecasting outcomes, betting markets present a contrast to conventional polling, which can often lag behind today's fast-paced news cycles. However, concerns also exist regarding the potential for market manipulation, highlighting the need for regulation in this emerging landscape.
Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series.)
SOURCES:
Eric Posner, professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.
Koleman Strumpf, professor of economics at Wake Forest University.
