Trumponomics What Happens If Trump Doesn't Pull Back on His Trade War?
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Jun 4, 2025 
Anna Wong, Chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics, brings her deep insight from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, while Josh Wingrove, a senior White House reporter, provides an inside look at evolving strategies. They dive into the economic fallout of Trump's trade war, discussing its complex legal battles and unexpected outcomes like disinflation. The podcast also highlights the tense U.S.-China relations, exploring the risks of a capital war and the significant impacts on manufacturing and consumer behavior.
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Tariff Status and Deals Lag
- Many tariffs remain and some have even increased, especially steel and aluminum tariffs.
- Few deals have been made; only one minor trade deal has been completed among dozens promised.
Trade War Causes Disinflation
- The trade war caused more disinflation than inflation due to reduced demand for services like travel and hotels.
- Economic pessimism outweighed tariff-driven price increases in the goods sector so far.
Inflation Impact Delayed
- The initial inflation predicted from tariffs hasn't materialized due to firms avoiding passing higher costs to consumers yet.
- The post-July period will clarify if firms raise prices or absorb costs reducing profits.