Trumponomics

Niall Ferguson, a noted historian and commentator, joins Fareed Zakaria, CNN host and insightful author, for a lively discussion at the Milken Conference. They dissect Trump's economic worldview and reveal how the U.S. economy is outperforming expectations, despite his protectionist rhetoric. Historical comparisons with past presidencies highlight deeper political currents. They also navigate the complexities of decoupling from China and emphasize the dollar's strength amid global challenges, painting a picture of resilience in a tumultuous landscape.

On this episode of Trumponomics, we discuss why India stands to gain from the US trade war with China and the rest of the world. Host Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg senior editor Chris Anstey and reporter Shruti Srivastava, as well as Bloomberg Economics senior India economist Abhishek Gupta. They look at how India has been able to pull ahead of rivals as the US roils the world, and specifically whether the Republican in the White House may unintentionally be boosting the South Asian nation’s long-term ambitions to replace China as the “factory of the world.” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Krishna Guha, a former New York Federal Reserve executive now at Evercore ISI, and Kate Davidson, managing editor at Bloomberg News, dive into the impact of Donald Trump’s rhetoric on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. They discuss the potential crisis if Wall Street begins doubting the Fed's independence. Guha warns that confidence in the Fed hinges on its ability to act without political pressure, while Davidson raises questions about Powell's future and the implications of a potential leadership change in the Fed.

Nouriel Roubini, a senior advisor at Hudson Bay Capital and NYU economics professor, dives deep into the U.S.-China trade war. He discusses how China might not only weather the tariffs but even find opportunities to emerge stronger. Roubini highlights China's resilience, its shifting strategies in global markets, and the potential risks of selling U.S. treasuries. He emphasizes the need for heightened domestic consumption and how cultural factors influence China's negotiation tactics, revealing the complexity of international relations.

Nancy Cook, a senior national political correspondent at Bloomberg who has covered Trump since 2016, joins Ed Harrison, a senior editor and author of Bloomberg's Everything Risk newsletter. They dive into the implications of Trump's tariff plan and its impact on the U.S. economy. The discussion highlights rising recession and inflation risks, market turmoil from high tariffs, and the complexities of current trade strategies. They also touch on tax reforms, national debt concerns, and the historical context of these economic challenges.

Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times and CBE awardee, joins the discussion to unpack the roots of Trump's global trade strategies. They explore whether countries targeted by tariffs should have anticipated Trump's moves. Wolf sheds light on how the U.S. trade imbalances are not mere accidents but indicators of deeper economic vulnerabilities. The conversation dives into the potential consequences of tariffs on global market confidence and the risks posed to U.S. economic stability amid shifting policies.

David Wilcox, director of US economic research for Bloomberg Economics, and Molly Smith, US economics editor for Bloomberg, delve into the troubling credibility of US economic data. They discuss recent firings of independent regulators and the implications for data integrity. The conversation explores historical legal battles, stressing the enduring impact on economic governance. They highlight potential political interference and the urgent need for transparency, drawing parallels to past administrations that compromised data validity.

Tom Orlik, Chief Economist for Bloomberg Economics, shares his insights on the strategic nuances of the Trump administration's economic policies. He discusses the historical context of Trump's decisions, questioning if recent turmoil could actually set America on a better long-term path. Orlik analyzes the shifting market sentiment, the impact of tariffs, and spending cuts. He also draws parallels between today's challenges and lessons from past economic leaders, emphasizing the crucial role of visionary leadership in shaping the future.

Join Shawn Donnan, a senior writer for Bloomberg, and Mark Sobel, US Chairman of OMFIF, as they unpack the potential 'Mar-a-Lago Accord' and its implications for global trade. They delve into the intricate relationship between U.S. dollar valuation and national security, exploring economic challenges and the evolving landscape under Trump’s administration. The discussion also touches on the interconnectedness of currency manipulation and trade negotiations, revealing how these factors shape not just economics, but international relationships.

Anna Wong, Chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics, and Kathryn Holston, Economist at Evercore ISI Research, delve into the looming question of a Trump recession. They dissect the economic shifts caused by government layoffs, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty, moving from initial growth expectations to concerns over contraction. The duo explores the implications of tariffs on inflation and how policy uncertainty affects job growth. With insights drawn from their impressive backgrounds, they provide a thought-provoking analysis of today's economic landscape.