Azeem Azhar's Exponential View My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?
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Sep 10, 2025 The discussion kicks off with a deep dive into OpenAI's potential $500 billion valuation amid a burgeoning AI market. Could AI stocks surpass Big Tech? A closer look at OpenAI's deal with Microsoft paints an optimistic picture of explosive revenue growth. However, the conversation balances bullish predictions with concerns about competition and evolving market dynamics. As the host evaluates the risks and opportunities, listeners are left pondering the sustainability of AI ventures and the exciting models that could shape the future.
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Compare OpenAI To Nasdaq With A Risk Premium
- The NASDAQ is the natural benchmark for evaluating OpenAI as a tech investment.
- Private share illiquidity and governance gaps demand a higher return than the public index.
Microsoft Cut Shapes OpenAI Economics
- Microsoft takes a significant share of OpenAI gross revenues under current terms.
- Reducing that cut to 10% by 2030 materially affects OpenAI's path to massive valuations.
Rapid Revenue Growth Enables Big Valuation Paths
- OpenAI's revenue run rate jumped from $1.6B in 2023 toward $12–20B annualized.
- Leaked forecasts show revenue projections of $100–125B by 2029, enabling very large cash flows.