Evaluating the Future Valuation of OpenAI: A Financial Thought Experiment

Can AI stocks beat Big Tech? In this episode, I discuss OpenAI and its decision to expand a secondary share sale that lets insiders sell about $10.3 billion of stock at roughly a $500 billion valuation. Although skeptical at first, the calculations reveal there is a path for OpenAI to deliver outsized returns.

I cover:

(0:00) The $500B question 

(01:11) Why the Nasdaq Index is the benchmark 

(03:35) Inside the OpenAI-Microsoft deal 

(05:50) The bull case: OpenAI’s trillion-dollar path 

(09:33) The AI market explosion 

(12:39) The bear case: Competition and constraints 

(17:13) Exploring the models of tomorrow 

(20:58) The disruption premium 

(23:21) Where will OpenAI’s revenue come from? 

(29:14) The final verdict