Dr. Patricia Lewis, a security expert from Chatham House, analyzes the shifting attitudes of Ukrainians towards peace negotiations. Vitaly Pashchenko, a Kyiv student, shares the perspectives of his generation on potential compromises, while Oleksii Svid from Kharkiv highlights the tension between military resolve and the desire for peace. The conversation dives into the emotional turmoil of territorial concessions, the aspirations for a stable future, and the implications of international dynamics on Ukraine’s quest for peace.
Public sentiment in Ukraine is shifting towards accepting territorial concessions for a quicker end to the war, indicating potential openness to peace negotiations.
The need for credible guarantees from Russia is crucial for any peace deal, as trust remains a significant concern for Ukrainians considering concessions.
Deep dives
Growing Interest in Peace Negotiations
There is an increasing focus on potential peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, as indicated by the remarks of various leaders. President Zelensky mentioned the possibility of a diplomatic settlement, suggesting that Ukraine may not require military means to regain certain territories. Similarly, Finnish President Alexander Stubbe stated that negotiations are becoming necessary, reflecting a shift in the discourse surrounding the conflict. Public sentiment also appears to be changing, with a recent poll showing that a third of Ukrainians would consider territorial concessions in exchange for a quicker end to the war.
Implications of Trust and Past Agreements
The issue of trust in Russia is paramount in discussions about any potential concessions or peace agreements. Ukrainians are wary of Russia’s adherence to previous agreements, such as the Budapest Memorandum, which failed to ensure Ukraine's security. One participant emphasized that the perception of capitulation remains a significant concern, as giving ground to an unpredictable aggressor could lead to long-term instability. Hence, any path towards peace must involve credible guarantees and assurance of compliance from Russia, aligning with the insights of those engaged in ongoing conflict.
The Challenge of Balancing Military Gains and Diplomacy
The ongoing military situation complicates the decision-making process regarding peace talks. Currently, Ukraine faces a challenging dilemma of whether to negotiate from a position of strength or wait until military conditions change, which may entail increased losses. Political dynamics, particularly in the U.S., may also influence the timeline and framework of negotiations, pushing Ukraine to consider compromises it previously might have rejected. Ultimately, the discourse suggests that any lasting solutions will require careful negotiation and involvement of key international players to reach a consensus that respects Ukraine's sovereignty.
Is support for peace deal growing among Ukrainians?
Between President Zelensky saying Russia should attend a peace summit in November, and a recent poll suggesting that more Ukrainians would now accept some territorial concessions, we assess whether the mood is changing. Dr Patricia Lewis who leads the International Security programme at Chatham House gives her take.
Victoria and Vitaly are also joined by Vitaly Pashchenko, a student in Kyiv and Oleksii Svid, who lives in Kharkiv, who have different opinions about the possibility of peace talks and what that might entail.
Today’s episode is presented by Victoria Derbyshire and Vitaly Shevchenko.
The producers were Arsenii Sokolov, Nick Sturdee and Cordelia Hemming. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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