Wharton Moneyball The Analytics Behind Baseball's Small-Market Success
Oct 14, 2026
Mike Petriello, MLB’s Director of Stats and Research and a leading voice behind Statcast, explores how the Milwaukee Brewers turn data, development, and patience into small-market success. He breaks down Shohei Ohtani’s timing issues, opposite-field hitting, pitch shapes, Trajekt simulations, and why analytics only work when players and coaches trust them. The discussion also spans uncertain decisions in football and hockey.
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Ohtani Was Late, Not Slower
- Shohei Ohtani’s postseason slump reflected disrupted timing, not reduced bat speed.
- His late-swing rate peaked, attack angle fell, and contact shifted toward opposite field.
The Brewers Win By Zigging
- Milwaukee succeeds by rejecting league-wide pull-oriented hitting rather than copying wealthy teams.
- The Brewers were uniquely opposite-field oriented and posted baseball’s highest opposite-field slugging percentage.
Development Lets Small Markets Compete
- Milwaukee’s sustained success comes from player development and opportunities that projections struggle to anticipate.
- Players choose smaller markets when those organizations help them improve and increase future earning power.