Japan Revisits Nuclear But Solar and Wind Are Future
Oct 4, 2023
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Japan's transition from nuclear power to fossil fuels after the Fukushima incident, challenges in achieving net zero through renewables, potential and challenges of offshore wind projects, difficulties faced by renewable energy projects in Japan, the role of the Japanese government in energy deployment, and closing remarks and sponsor ad.
Renewable energy, specifically solar and wind, are projected to account for over 80% of Japan's electricity generation by 2050, playing a crucial role in the country's pathway to net-zero emissions.
Despite having significant potential for geothermal energy, Japan faces challenges in deploying geothermal projects due to high development risks associated with drilling and opposition from local industries, hindering its full potential as a clean energy source in the nation.
Deep dives
Japan's Energy Mix and Emissions Targets
Japan's current energy mix relies heavily on fossil fuels, with coal, gas, and oil power plants supplying the majority of its electricity generation. This reliance on fossil fuels has led to high emissions, particularly in the power sector, which accounts for about 40% of total emissions in Japan. To address climate change, Japan has set two major decarbonization targets: a 46% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2013 levels and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Challenges with Nuclear Power
Before the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, nuclear power accounted for one-third of Japan's electricity generation. However, after the accident, all nuclear reactors were shut down, leading to an increased reliance on fossil fuels and higher emissions. Since then, only a few reactors have been restarted, leaving nuclear power as a small contributor to Japan's electricity generation. While the Japanese government has set a target to increase the share of nuclear generation to 22% by 2030, restarting reactors and meeting this target pose challenges due to safety concerns and a limited timeline.
Renewable Energy Potential and Grid Challenges
Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, plays a crucial role in Japan's pathway to net-zero emissions. Solar and wind are projected to account for over 80% of total electricity generation in Japan by 2050. However, the deployment of renewables faces challenges such as grid connection issues, limited land availability, and high costs. Grid connection delays and the need to scale up renewable capacity pose challenges to meeting Japan's decarbonization targets. Additionally, land constraints and low carbon pricing also hinder the widespread adoption of renewable energy sources.
Geothermal Energy Potential and Obstacles
Japan has significant potential for geothermal energy due to its hot spring industry. However, the deployment of geothermal projects faces challenges, including high development risks associated with drilling and opposition from local industries, particularly the powerful hot spring industry. Limited deployment of geothermal projects and misconceptions about the technology create barriers to realizing its full potential as a clean energy source in Japan.
Japan has pledged to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, yet the pathways to this target are complicated by the country’s recent history. In the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima meltdown, Japan suspended all of its nuclear reactors, which at the time supplied one third of the nation’s energy. Today, the majority of these reactors still lie dormant, and fossil fuels are filling the energy void.
So how can Japan achieve its climate goals? On today’s show, Dana sits down with Isshu Kikuma, an associate from BNEF’s Tokyo office. Together they talk about the clean energy technologies Japan is using to replace its fossil fuel outlay, the country’s still-complex relationship with nuclear energy, and the surprising group that’s currently blocking the nation’s geothermal energy potential.
Today’s episode draws upon themes found in BNEF’s New Energy Outlook: Japan. The regional New Energy Outlook reports analyze local technology pathways to reach net zero and the policy recommendations BNEF identifies as key for a successful transition.
Complimentary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal, on bnef.com or on the BNEF mobile app.