Top Traders Unplugged

SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver

52 snips
Sep 20, 2025
Rob Carver shares insights on how despite strong performance, poor investor outcomes often stem from timing issues. They discuss the recent trend of asset management giants investing in managed futures and ponder if the current underperformance of CTAs indicates a structural change. The conversation highlights the crucial difference between a strategy's success and its execution. With a reflection on the Lehman Brothers' collapse anniversary, they shed light on investor behavior, emphasizing that knowing what works doesn’t guarantee successful investing.
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ANECDOTE

Lehman Anniversary And Reputation Bounceback

  • Rob recalls the anniversary of Lehman Brothers and notes a sell-side analyst recommended buying Lehman days before collapse.
  • He uses the story to illustrate how reputations and careers recover despite big mistakes in finance.
INSIGHT

Big Firms Joining Trend Following Late

  • Niels highlights large asset managers launching CTA/trend products now despite long evidence this approach existed.
  • He finds timing curious and suggests personnel or recent performance may explain the late adoption.
ADVICE

Cap Forecasts For Cash-Only Portfolios

  • When you can't use leverage, cap forecast influence by truncating extreme forecasts around the average.
  • Accept that you may hold higher cash on average and avoid overcomplicating reallocations.
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