SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver
Top Traders Unplugged
Has CTA Performance Structurally Changed?
A deep dive: lunch with a CTA manager prompted discussion on whether CTA underperformance is structural — using long‑run data versus short recent windows for allocation decisions.
Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the data can and can’t tell us when conviction fades. If there’s a theme this week, it’s simple: knowing what works is not the same as using it well.
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Episode TimeStamps:
01:14 - What has been on our radar recently?
12:09 - Industry performance update
19:23 - Q1, John: What are your recommendations for adapting a continuous forecast-based position sizing for a cash-only portfolio?
23:15 - Q2, Absolute: Is short/long symmetry optimal for a strategy in which the price of the traded instruments is measured in units (fiat currencies) that are inflated (devalued)?
30:19 - Q3, Lin: Got any ideas for trading a crypto portfolio?
32:04 - Why investors are losing money on 42% gain ETFs
39:50 - The difference between percentage return and cash return
43:24 - Debunking the persistent score card
46:19 - How the world has changed for CTAs
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