Would Trump’s tariffs really be that bad? With Kimberly Clausing
Nov 18, 2024
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In this engaging discussion, Kimberly Clausing, a UCLA professor and former lead economist in the Biden administration, explores the potential impacts of Trump's tariff policies. She examines whether tariffs are as harmful as some believe and reflects on past economic outcomes. Clausing highlights misconceptions about the U.S. trade deficit and argues that tariffs alone won’t fix underlying issues. The conversation also delves into how trade policies have historically impacted corporations and workers, advocating for more equitable economic solutions.
Trump's tariffs could severely damage the economy, potentially reaching 9.5 on a harmful scale when combined with other policies.
The relationship between tariffs and trade deficits is complex, suggesting that tariffs alone may not effectively address trade imbalances.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariffs on Economic Policy
Trump's proposed tariffs include a broad 10% levy on all trading partners and a significant 60% tariff on imports from China. Such policies could have a severe negative impact on the economy, ranking around an eight out of ten in terms of damage if considered in isolation. When coupled with other policy changes, such as deportation policies and challenges to central bank independence, the damage could rise to a staggering 9.5. This potential harm underlines the risks of relying on tariffs as a trade instrument, especially when they can lead to economic instability and retaliatory actions from other nations.
Legislative Challenges and Executive Authority
Despite concerns about Trump's ability to implement these tariffs, there are various executive authorities he may invoke to do so, including national security and harmful trade practices. There are reports suggesting that Congress might legislate tariffs, a rare occurrence since the Smoot-Hawley tariff of the 1930s. The potential for Congressional action adds a layer of complexity, with possible resistance that could thwart straightforward tariff implementation. This situation illustrates the intricate balance of power between the executive and legislative branches in economic policymaking, which could limit or enable the enactment of such tariffs.
Global Trade Implications and Retaliation Risks
The likelihood of retaliation from America's trading partners raises concerns about the potential for escalating trade wars. Countries are already preparing lists of U.S. goods for retaliation, which could spiral into a situation reminiscent of the 1930s, characterized by widespread currency devaluation and economic stagnation. The interconnectedness of global trade means that tariffs can generate substantial costs not just domestically but internationally as well, potentially harming U.S. export industries. This retaliation scenario emphasizes the urgency for careful negotiation and conflict resolution within international trade relationships.
Misunderstandings of Trade Deficits and Tariffs
Tariffs are often proposed as a solution for reducing trade deficits, but the relationship between tariffs and trade balances is complex. Many economists argue that tariffs will not effectively improve the trade balance because they often lead to higher prices without reducing the total value of imports. Instead, the trade deficit is more closely tied to domestic consumption and savings rates rather than solely to tariffs. This suggests that any attempt to address trade deficits through tariffs may ultimately be misguided and fail to achieve the desired economic outcomes.
Trump is returning to office with many of the same policies that characterised his last term. And for economists, none looms larger than the prospect of significant new tariffs. But are tariffs really as destructive as feared? After all, the Biden administration maintained most of them and the economy has remained strong. Today on the show, we put the question to Kimberly Clausing, a professor at UCLA, and formerly lead economist in the Biden administration's Office for Tax Policy.
Soumaya Keynes writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it here