Insights from Davos: Trump’s impact on the global economy
Jan 24, 2025
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Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, and Arancha González, former Spanish foreign minister and current dean at Sciences Po, share their insights from Davos amid Donald Trump's recent return to politics. They discuss the mixed feelings surrounding Trump's impact on global trade, including the potential for new tariffs and geopolitical tensions like those in Ukraine. The importance of international alliances and the role of gender equality in economic growth are also highlighted, painting a complex picture of the current global landscape.
The inauguration of Donald Trump has polarized opinions among global leaders, creating optimism for U.S. economic policies while raising concerns over tariffs and international stability.
At Davos, the geopolitical impact on Ukraine was a major focus, with participants emphasizing the need for European unity in supporting Ukraine's defense strategy against potential U.S.-Russia negotiations.
Deep dives
Trump's Dominance at Davos
The World Economic Forum in Davos was significantly influenced by Donald Trump's inauguration, generating divided opinions among business leaders and economists. Business representatives expressed optimism regarding deregulation and tax cuts, while economists raised concerns about potential deficits and tariffs. A global opinion poll revealed that many individuals across various countries believe Trump will positively impact America and other regions, but there is notable apprehension among America's close allies, particularly in Europe. This highlights a contrasting perspective between the perceived benefits of Trump's policies and the fears they evoke in countries more reliant on a stable international order.
The Tale of Two Economies
Davos showcased a split perception of the global economy, with the U.S. exhibiting a buoyant outlook and other nations adopting a more cautious stance. Participants noted the buoyancy surrounding Trump's policies and artificial intelligence advancements in the U.S., while counterparts emphasized the importance of open markets and careful capital regulation. A growing concern over the potential consequences of rising U.S. tariffs echoed historic warnings about protectionism reminiscent of the 1930s. This shift has led many countries to expedite trade agreements with the European Union, indicating a shift towards building new alliances as they navigate uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies.
Concerns Over Geopolitical Stability
The geopolitical landscape, especially regarding Ukraine, raised significant apprehension among leaders at the forum. Ukrainian President Zelensky stressed the importance of Europe considering their own actions rather than focusing solely on the U.S. Meanwhile, many participants expressed worry over a possible re-emergence of U.S.-Russia negotiations under Trump, which could adversely impact Ukraine's sovereignty. Discussions highlighted the need for a robust Ukrainian defense strategy, supported by European nations, whilst educating their leadership on the importance of unity in security guarantees.
ECFR is live from the WEF 2025 in Davos, where top business leaders are gathered to discuss the state of the world. After Donald Trump’s inauguration just three days ago, attendees eagerly await the absent US president's video address on Thursday afternoon.
This week Mark Leonard welcomes Carl Bildt, co-chair of ECFR’s council and former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden, and Arancha González, dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Science Po and former foreign minister of Spain, to discuss their insights from public conversations and private meetings at this year’s WEF. What is most striking about the 2025 edition? How is the mood around the global economy? And does Trump’s return mean for the threat of tariffs and war in Ukraine?