Jared Cohen, president of global affairs at Goldman Sachs, dives into the profound implications of AI on geopolitics. He discusses the critical role of data center diplomacy and the U.S.'s need for strategic partnerships to maintain its tech leadership. Cohen highlights the limitations of U.S. AI infrastructure and its geopolitical ramifications, while also exploring the evolving dynamics between U.S. companies and Gulf states. The conversation touches on China's ambitious AI strategy and the complexities faced by Middle Eastern nations in fostering partnerships.
The U.S. must enhance its AI infrastructure to maintain leadership amid geopolitical pressures and the risk of increased Chinese capabilities.
The emergence of the Middle East as a potential data center hub raises questions about its alignment with U.S. or Chinese interests.
Deep dives
The Urgent Infrastructure Needs in AI Development
The ability of the U.S. to maintain leadership in generative AI hinges on its infrastructure capacity to meet growing demands. Currently, about 3,000 of the 8,000 data centers worldwide are located in the U.S., with low vacancy rates, complicating the ability to accommodate new AI workloads. Existing data centers primarily support cloud workloads, making them ill-suited for the high-density energy requirements of AI tasks. Consequently, there is a pressing need for differentiated data centers and a reliable power supply, which poses significant logistical and political challenges.
Geopolitical Implications of AI Infrastructure
As the U.S. seeks to expand its AI infrastructure, geopolitical considerations significantly influence where new data centers may be built. Options include maintaining infrastructure within democratic nations or optimizing for regions with cheaper energy, such as the global south. However, both scenarios pose risks; democratic countries face similar domestic power challenges, while moving infrastructure to cheaper regions could inadvertently strengthen China's AI capabilities. The Middle East emerges as a potential hub due to its energy access and rapid development capabilities, but its long-term alignment with U.S. interests remains uncertain.
The U.S.-China Competition in AI
The competition between the U.S. and China in the AI domain is characterized by contrasting approaches and capabilities, particularly regarding infrastructure development. While the U.S. has maintained a first-mover advantage, China is striving to catch up by enhancing its energy efficiency and expanding its global presence in data centers. However, China's reliance on U.S.-made GPUs limits its ability to fully develop advanced AI infrastructure independently. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, Middle Eastern countries find themselves at a crossroads, needing to choose between aligning more closely with U.S. or Chinese AI interests, which complicates global investments and infrastructure decisions.
The rise of AI could have profound implications for geopolitics given the decisions about where AI infrastructure is going to get built. Jared Cohen, president of global affairs and co-head of the Goldman Sachs Global Institute, discusses the data center diplomacy that is shaping geopolitics.
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