The correlation between the toilet paper panic and property prices | John Lindeman

2020 usually refers to someone with perfect vision, so it’s ironic that in 2020 we have such a poor picture of what lies ahead of us.

We’re moving through challenging, interesting times. 

We’re making history as we work through the coronavirus crisis and how it’s affecting our lives, our economy, and our health. 

But to give some clarity on what could be ahead, I’m going to have a chat with property researcher John Lindeman, who’s got some interesting thoughts about what’s going to happen in the short term and what’s going to happen in the medium to long term. 

We’re going to talk about what’s happening in the rental market, what’s going to happen to property prices, what’s going to happen to the supply and demand ratio, and how the rush for toilet paper relates to property prices. 

You see.. Many of us were amazed by the recent scenes of people stampeding to buy toilet paper, and some of us may even have joined the frantic rush to grab a few rolls before supplies ran out.

Supermarkets were left without toilet paper for weeks afterwards and with toilet paper supplies only now slowly returning back to normal, many of us are left wondering “What was all that about?”

This event was a classic “self-fulfilling prophecy”, which is when the prediction itself causes the result.

The same kind of panic buying events can also occur in the property market.

It starts when we hear about certain locations where properties are selling faster.

We are urged to be quick or miss out.

As more investors rush in to buy, they create the shortage that is being predicted.

This is why you need to make sure that any property opportunity you are interested in is backed by actual rental or owner-occupier demand, not just by speculative demand.

The COVID-19 pandemic will likely result in significant changes to our housing markets. But you also need to keep in mind that the short-term impacts are likely to be very different from the long-term outcomes.

Property markets where buyer demand is falling right now include those relying on tourism, short-term accommodation, and recreation.

Markets at risk from falling rents are short-term business, holiday, Airbnb, and student rental locations.

This has caused owners of short-term rental properties to list them as longer-term rentals instead, which is leading to a rise in rental vacancies. Rent could fall in some locations as a result.

However, this is also likely to be short-lived, because restrictions on movement and assembly are lifted, these markets are likely to bounce back quickly.

We expect a general surge in housing demand to occur after the current crisis is over and the restrictions on movement and assembly are lifted.

Rental demand will rise as tourism and holiday markets recover and we will experience an influx of migrants from other countries.

As a result, many suburbs will experience excellent growth, with buy prices right now at their lowest.

Links and Resources: 

Michael Yardney

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John Lindeman – Lindeman Reports

Shownotes plus more here: The correlation between the toilet paper panic and property prices | John Lindeman

Some of our favourite quotes from the show:

“Migrants come in and they buy refrigerators and televisions and carpets, and they grease the wheels of industry.”

“It’s easy to forget that even though the external circumstances are different, the downturn in the property cycle is a normal part of the cycle.”

“The first major lesson in life to learn is how to handle the winters.”

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