In a fascinating conversation, experienced economist and trader Mark Dow discusses the evolution of behavioral approaches in investing, misconceptions surrounding monetary policy and wealth creation, the factors that distort yield curve signals, and a bullish view on home builders and agency mortgage rates.
Home builders still have room to grow with low price-to-earnings ratios and strong chart patterns.
Investing in agency mortgage rates offers attractive carry and acts as a counterbalance to portfolio risk.
Banks are less sensitive to the yield curve, while demand for safe assets remains high.
Deep dives
Home builders remain bullish
Despite a strong rally, Mark Dow believes home builders still have room to grow. With low price-to-earnings ratios and strong chart patterns, the sector is poised for further gains.
Opportunities in agency mortgage rates
Concerns about quantitative tightening (QT) have led to wider spreads in agency mortgage rates. As bond volatility declines and spreads compress, these investments offer attractive carry and provide a counterbalance to portfolio risk.
The misunderstood yield curve
The shape of the yield curve is often seen as an indicator of recession. However, Mark Dow emphasizes the changing dynamics of banking and finance, stating that banks are less sensitive to the curve while demand for safe assets remains high.
Transitory inflation and the Fed
Mark Dow argues that inflation is transitory and that fears of a wage-price spiral are unfounded. He believes the Fed's monetary policy is unlikely to be a major driver of inflation and that structural disinflationary forces will persist.
Long-term market outlook
Mark Dow is optimistic about the ongoing bull market, highlighting sticky money and automatic asset allocation as contributors to potential market resilience. He advises a focus on core positions and proper risk management.
In a long career as an economist and trader, Mark Dow has seen almost everything. With one eye always on the narratives and behavioral elements that drive price, his commentary is an ideal complement to our own research. In a far-reaching conversation, we discuss his process, how it has evolved over the years, his always-insightful analysis of monetary policy frameworks past and present and the best opportunities Mark sees in markets in the weeks and months ahead. Mark is always Tweeting his thoughts @behavioralmacro and @mark_dow, be sure to check him out there.