John Deere Classic Picks and Predictions

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the John Deere Classic.
-Reviewing Detroit
-Discussing top 8 favs on odds board
-2 matchups
-2 t20's
-3 outrights (33/1, 80/1, 80/1)
-Sleeper, 3 FRP
-2 lineups, scoring, best bet

Will Doctor opens his podcast with enthusiasm over Aldrich Potgieter’s dramatic win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. At just 20 years old, Potgieter emerged victorious in a five-hole playoff against Max Gray Sherman and Chris Kirk. Doctor notes he had picked Potgieter pre-tournament at 125-1 odds, resulting in a monumental gain of 125.8 units that flipped his season from -72.9 to +52.8 units. Potgieter’s rounds of 62-70-65-69 highlighted both brilliance and resilience, especially his Saturday bogey-free 65 that earned him a two-shot lead. Despite criticism that most birdies came on the front nine, Doctor praises his short game, particularly ranking fifth in strokes gained around the greens in round three and gaining over a stroke total in that category.

Chris Kirk, a six-time PGA Tour winner, had a promising start with back-to-back 65s. Despite dealing with recent game struggles and nearly withdrawing from the U.S. Open, he performed well and missed chances to win with two putts inside 16 feet on 18, in both regulation and the playoff. Max Gray Sherman impressed with birdies on two of his final three holes to make the playoff, including a 35-foot birdie on 16. Though he missed several putts in the playoff, Sherman’s calm demeanor and improved ball striking stood out, crediting his caddy Adam Barmer. Doctor sees Sherman as a strong future contender.

Doctor critiques Twitter pundits who downplayed Potgieter’s Saturday round and emphasizes the significance of the playoff diversity: a 20-year-old, 30-year-old, and 40-year-old competing. He applauds CBS’s emotional broadcast moments, such as shots of the players’ fathers during the finale. Other notable performances included Will Gordon saving his PGA Tour card, Monday qualifier Brett White making the cut, and rising stars like Michael Thorbjornsen and Jackson Suber getting in the mix.

He recaps bets: Potgieter’s win was the headline; Champ and Sherman top-20 picks also cashed. Picks that failed included Stephen Jaeger, who struggled with his worst driving week in 25 starts, and Lee Hodges, who fell from contention with a poor third round. As he pivots to the John Deere Classic, Doctor emphasizes traits needed at TPC Deer Run—bombers off the tee, sharp wedge play inside 125 yards, and strong putting on bentgrass. He notes the course has the ninth-widest fairways on Tour, making driving accuracy less critical but not to be ignored.

He analyzes top players: passes on Ben Griffin due to fatigue, but likes Jason Day for a top-10 finish citing strong approach stats from 125-150 yards. He dismisses Denny McCarthy at 28-1 due to recurring poor third rounds, weak approach metrics, and no PGA wins. JT Poston is faded for weak iron stats despite being a past Deere champion. Si Woo Kim is heavily criticized—missed cuts, poor putting, and negative recent stats. Doctor proposes betting Jason Day over Si Woo Kim and two other Kim fade matchups.

Doctor’s top pick is Michael Thorbjornsen at 33-1, citing elite driving (2nd on tour), strong recent finishes, and solid putting. Thriston Lawrence is his second outright at 80-1, noting improved ball striking and three top finishes in recent events, including T12 at Oakmont. Cam Champ, also at 80-1, rounds out the outrights. Champ has been positive in all stat categories the last two weeks and historically played well at Deer Run.

Other bets include Jackson Koivun over Quade Cummins, Jason Day top 10 (+225), Champ top 20 (+320), and Thorbjornsen top 20 (+137) as the best bet. Doctor offers three first-round top-10 picks: Thorbjornsen, Pearson Cootie, and Champ. He concludes with two DFS lineups and predicts the winning score at -23.

For the latest on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59

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