What could Trump vs Harris mean for a Ukraine peace deal?
Sep 10, 2024
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Gordon Corera, a BBC security correspondent, joins the discussion on the implications of the upcoming Trump vs Harris debate for Ukraine's peace prospects. They analyze the strategic importance of Pokrovsk in the ongoing conflict and the dynamics of guerrilla warfare in occupied areas. The conversation also touches on the internal divisions within the Republican Party regarding military support for Ukraine and the military advancements in the UK, highlighting how these factors could influence the future of the conflict.
The potential clash between Trump and Harris in the U.S. election raises questions about future military aid and Ukraine's peace prospects.
The strategic importance of capturing Pokrovsk reflects ongoing military challenges for Ukraine against a resilient Russian military presence.
Deep dives
Trump's Reactions and Political Implications
Donald Trump reacted strongly to Vladimir Putin's support for Kamala Harris in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, expressing offense and skepticism about the endorsement. He referenced his own tough stance on Russia during his presidency, asserting that he could resolve the ongoing Ukraine conflict before taking office again. Despite Trump's declarations, skepticism surrounds his ability to follow through, as even former officials like Mike Pompeo have indicated doubts about the sincerity of such promises. The political dynamics in the U.S. regarding Ukraine support remain uncertain, with ongoing debates on how potential election outcomes could influence military aid and broader policies.
Field Developments in the Ukraine Conflict
The podcast highlights a recent statement from MI6 and CIA leaders concerning Ukraine's strategic advances, including its incursion into Russia's Kursk region. They indicate that while the incursion has brought the war closer to Russian citizens, the primary military objectives for both Russia and Ukraine remain unchanged. The speakers emphasized that the capture of critical locations like Pokrovsk is significant, as it could hinder Ukrainian supply lines and solidify Russian control in the region. The ongoing military situation suggests that despite tactical gains, Ukraine faces challenges with morale and sustaining its defensive strategies against a resilient Russian military.
Public Perception and Resistance Efforts
The podcast addresses the complexities of public perception in Russia regarding the war in Ukraine and the efforts to penetrate the Kremlin's information blockade. Despite strict government controls on media, there are various methods, such as VPNs and independent news sites, that allow individuals in Russia to access alternative viewpoints about the conflict. The discussion pivoted to the effectiveness of guerrilla warfare, noting that while there are some reports of partisan activity in occupied areas, widespread insurgency has not materialized. Advances in technology have shifted tactics, enabling Ukraine to conduct operations remotely rather than relying solely on traditional ground-based resistance movements.
Your questions answered on the US election, Pokrovsk and guerrilla warfare…
With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris facing-off in their only scheduled presidential debate this week, we assess whether the election might accelerate any potential peace deal in Ukraine.
BBC security correspondent Gordon Corera joins Vitaly and Lucy to also discuss how strategically important the capture of Pokrovsk is for both sides and what evidence we have that Ukraine is waging a guerrilla war in the Russian occupied areas.
Today’s episode is presented by Lucy Hockings and Vitaly Shevchenko.
The producers were Arsenii Sokolov and Cordelia Hemming. The technical producer was Antonio Fernandes. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The senior news editor is Richard Fenton-Smith.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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