RenMac RenMac Off-Script: A Probabilities Business
Nov 7, 2025
Explore the rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly oblivious to soft labor data. Delve into Trump's tariff maneuvers and the potential pushback from Congress and SCOTUS. Unpack the disconnect between affordability issues and political rhetoric, while analyzing market breadth through 52-week highs and lows. Discover why crypto is stalling and how missing payroll reports complicate economic visibility. Plus, examine the implications of the government shutdown on the economy.
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Market Breadth Shows Divergence
- 52-week highs and lows both elevated signal market breadth divergence, with winners and losers coexisting near highs.
- Jeff DeGraff says this creates balanced long-short opportunities and warns to watch for deterioration incrementally.
Run A Balanced Long–Short Book
- Run a balanced, incremental long-short book to profit from both vulnerable winners and losers.
- Jeff DeGraff advises pressing deterioration incrementally instead of making broad bearish calls.
Seasonality Creates A Probabilistic Edge
- Seasonal strength in Nov–Jan raises the probability of positive returns, so seasonality biases favor being long.
- Jeff DeGraff compares seasonality to blackjack odds and recommends treating it probabilistically.