The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Daily: How China Might Coerce Taiwan
May 15, 2025
Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, both Senior Fellows at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, delve into the rising tensions between China and Taiwan. They discuss Beijing's coercive strategies, including blockades and subversion, and the threats posed to Taiwan's key figures. The duo also explores how Taiwan and the U.S. can adapt to deter potential aggression, emphasizing Japan's crucial role in East Asian defense. Furthermore, they highlight the implications of China's nuclear modernization on regional stability.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
China's Avoidance of Invasion
- China may find invasion of Taiwan too costly and risky despite seeming certain to succeed.
- It prefers combining blockade, subversion, and nuclear threats as cheaper, quicker coercion tools.
Tensions Within China's Long-Term Goals
- Xi Jinping's China dream aims for economic growth and military strength but war with Taiwan threatens both.
- These internal tensions make Beijing favor less risky coercion strategies over costly war.
Blockade as Psychological Weapon
- A blockade around Taiwan threatens disruptions without full invasion.
- It seeks psychological impact by isolating Taiwan, implying limited external support and forcing quick capitulation.