First Eagle Plays Safe as Credit Spreads Get Squeezed
Jan 9, 2025
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Jim Fellows, Co-president and CIO of First Eagle Alternative Credit, shares his insights on the current credit landscape. He highlights the tightening debt spreads and urges a conservative approach in leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. The conversation digs into opportunities in asset-based lending and trends in middle-market loan pricing. Fellows also discusses the outlook for buyout finance and the challenges posed by private credit defaults, revealing the complexities and risks in today's investment climate.
First Eagle warns of conservative investment strategies in credit markets due to tightening spreads and the lack of obvious value.
Despite challenges in certain sectors, the lower middle market presents unique investment opportunities as direct lenders capitalize on less competition.
Deep dives
Current Trends in Credit Markets
Credit markets are experiencing a significant surge, with expectations for record debt issuance, primarily for refinancing purposes. The demand for high-grade debt remains strong, offering yields approaching 5.4%, which is appealing to investors amid low default risk. However, this has resulted in thin spreads, pushing investors towards structured finance and private debt for potentially better returns. A notable concern arises over risk mispricing in the current climate, which could exacerbate in 2025, leading to increased caution among market participants.
M&A Activity and Credit Spreads
While there is optimism regarding mergers and acquisitions (M&A), uncertainties around tariffs and global conditions may dampen this activity, impacting credit spreads. There is speculation that M&A will primarily consist of strategic acquisitions rather than robust market activity, which may keep supply constrained. As credit spreads tighten across various asset classes, especially in private credit and high yield, the outlook indicates potential further tightening influenced by reduced M&A activity. Despite these challenges, conditions in the second half of 2025 could lead to more favorable dynamics.
Opportunities in the Lower Middle Market
The lower middle market, characterized by companies with EBITDA between $20 million to $50 million, presents a unique investment opportunity as these sectors involve less competition from large players. As banks quietly re-enter this market, direct lenders remain well-positioned, especially around acquisition financing, with potential deals ranging from $30 million to $200 million. Investors can find value and favorable returns in this segment, which continues to show resilient performance despite economic pressures. Opportunities within this space often require careful structuring due to varying market conditions and the specific needs of companies.
Sector Insights and Future Outlook
Specific sectors show both promise and caution; financial services display positive dynamics but necessitate scrutiny regarding companies reliant on float as interest rates fluctuate. Business services remain robust, while utilities have found renewed strength due to rising power demand driven by technological advancements. Conversely, sectors like automotive and retail face persistent challenges, with healthcare remaining uncertain amid future policy changes. The overarching sentiment suggests that private credit may continue to thrive in 2025, with attention on how broader economic factors may influence credit market health.
Debt spreads are set to tighten further as demand for yield rises and net supply remains constrained, according to First Eagle Alternative Credit, which is cautious about the year ahead. “Stay conservative — that’s the mantra that we’re operating under,” said Jim Fellows, the firm’s co-president and chief investment officer, referring to leveraged loans, private credit and high-yield bonds. “You don’t see a lot of screaming value,” he tells Bloomberg News’ James Crombie and Bloomberg Intelligence senior credit analyst David Havens in the latest Credit Edge podcast. Havens and Fellows also discuss opportunity in asset-based lending, middle-market loan pricing and covenant trends, as well as the outlook for buyout finance and private credit defaults.