Freakonomics Radio 233. How to Be Less Terrible at Predicting the Future
Jan 14, 2016
Experts and pundits are bad at forecasting due to lack of accountability and being unscientific. Philip Tetlock is turning prediction into a science, making it a learnable skill. Characteristics like numeracy, open-mindedness, and the 'outside view' method improve forecasting accuracy. Super forecasters with the Good Judgment Project continuously update knowledge and understand specific details of forecasting questions.
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Panthers' Upset Win Example
- Carolina Panthers' unexpected win over Seattle Seahawks defied expert consensus.
- Experts favored Seattle due to history and location, but overlooked current performance.
Accountability Lacking in Experts
- Experts avoid accountability due to lack of consequences for bad forecasts.
- This leads to careless or non-scientific predictions common across many fields.
Expert Overconfidence & Dogma
- Experts typically exhibit overconfidence and dogmatism in predictions.
- They resist updating beliefs in response to new evidence, harming forecast accuracy.