Forward Guidance The Global Economy Runs on Perpetual Stimulus | Keith Dicker
23 snips
Dec 10, 2025 
Keith Dicker, Founder and CIO of IceCap Asset Management and host of The Loonie Hour podcast, dives into the world's dependence on perpetual stimulus. He discusses how U.S. macro conditions dictate global market trends and why Canada appears fragile as the U.S. strengthens. Dicker also explores the implications of rising yields on the bond market, assesses Canada’s unique economic challenges, and champions gold and commodities as essential portfolio diversifiers in today's climate.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
2018 Repo Tantrum Foreshadowed Today's Fragility
- Keith recalls the December 2018 repo stress that forced the Fed to pivot and expand its balance sheet.
- He links that episode to current reserve shortfalls and the likelihood of renewed QE and rate cuts.
QE Focus Is About Banking Liquidity Not Curve Targets
- The Fed will prioritize restoring bank reserves and liquidity over precise curve positioning.
- That shift fuels risk assets but also risks rekindling inflation and attracting foreign capital into US Treasuries.
U.S. Strength Drains Capital From Other Regions
- Stronger U.S. performance attracts capital and worsens weakness elsewhere like Canada and Europe.
- That dynamic can prolong U.S. resilience while other regions face higher recession risk.
