UBS On-Air: Market Moves How should I be positioned? with Torsten Slok (Apollo) and Jason Draho (UBS CIO)
Jul 18, 2025
Join Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, and Jason Draho, UBS CIO's Head of Asset Allocation Americas, as they delve into the complexities of U.S. trade policy and its economic implications. They tackle the Federal Reserve's evolving role and its impact on monetary policy. They also analyze the dichotomy of tariffs and inflation, discuss the vibrant yet concentrated equity markets influenced by AI advancements, and explore the lessons from historical market trends. This engaging conversation balances economic insights with investment strategies.
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Tariffs' Earnings Impact Uncertainty
- The trade tariff impact on companies will clarify during the upcoming earnings season.
- The key question is whether consumers or companies bear the cost through inflation or reduced earnings.
Markets Anticipate Tariff Plateau
- Markets expect the effective tariff rate around 15%, which the market can absorb with limited shock.
- This suggests a general shrug from investors expecting a negotiated tariff endpoint.
Legal Risks to Tariff Stability
- Upcoming court rulings on tariff legality could radically change tariff outcomes.
- Markets face uncertainty if tariffs on certain countries are deemed illegal, impacting economic forecasts.