Explore the changing view of interdependence in global trade, including the economic effects and reduction in poverty. The Director General of the World Trade Organization discusses geopolitical tensions and the erosion of consensus around trade. Also, the importance of building resilience and inclusivity in supply chains and the challenges faced by the multilateral trading system due to strained US-China relations.
The idea of economic interdependence between countries has been successful in preventing war and improving living standards over the past 75 years
Addressing the winners and losers of globalization and promoting inclusive and fair trade practices is crucial to bridge the perception gap and maximize the overall benefits of expanding global trade
Deep dives
The Importance of the Multilateral Trading System
The multilateral trading system is a global, public good that has delivered economic interdependence, which promotes global peace and prosperity. While there are challenges and criticisms, we must not overlook the positive impact it has had over the past 75 years. The idea of interdependence has largely been successful in preventing war and improving living standards. However, recent crises and growing inequalities have led to a shift in perception, with some questioning the benefits of globalization. It is crucial to acknowledge the vulnerabilities in supply chains and global commons, such as climate change, while sustaining interdependence and working towards reconfiguring the next wave of globalization.
The Economic Record and Perception of Globalization
Despite the compelling economic record of increased global trade contributing to poverty reduction and improved living standards, there is a gap in public perception. While many agree that expanding trade is a positive thing, globalization and its impact are viewed less favorably, especially in developed countries. This perception gap is influenced by various factors, including technology advancements and the confounding of trade and technology-related job losses. It is essential to address the winners and losers of globalization and recognize the need for inclusive and fair trade practices to bridge the gap and reap the overall benefits.
China's Entry into the World Trade Organization
China's integration into the multilateral trading system has brought numerous benefits to both developed and developing countries. The entry of China and other countries has driven global economic growth, facilitated the development of global supply chains, and significantly reduced global poverty. While there may have been issues and challenges, such as subsidies and the pace of integration, the overall impact has been positive. It is important to acknowledge the transformative power of China's rise, coupled with the need for continuously reviewing and revising existing agreements to ensure fairness and inclusivity.
The Way Forward: Resilience and Reimagining Globalization
Addressing vulnerabilities in supply chains and building resilience are essential steps forward in the multilateral trading system. Reimagining globalization through re-globalization is an approach to diversify supply chains, deconcentrate manufacturing and production, and create a more inclusive and resilient trade environment. While there may be trends of reshoring and friend-shoring, it is crucial to avoid excessive fragmentation that would harm global cooperation, economic growth, and the ability to tackle global challenges like climate change. Striking a balance between national security concerns and maintaining a rules-based system is also an ongoing dialogue among WTO members.
After World War II, an idea took hold: economic interdependence between countries would help prevent war. But lately, faith in this idea has wavered, and terms like “decoupling,” “friend shoring,” and “de-risking” are dominating the debates around trade in Washington and beyond.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organization, disagrees with key elements of this new consensus. She thinks that policymakers are misdiagnosing the problems that the world faces, and that they risk setting us on a dangerous course—one that could break the global economy and leave the world both less prosperous and less secure.
We discuss why views on global trade have changed so dramatically in recent years, China’s integration into the global trading system, and what would happen if the world fragmented into two trading blocs.