

Navigating Israel-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainties
Jun 25, 2025
In this discussion featuring Daniel Sternoff, a non-resident fellow at CGEP with expertise in energy markets, Richard Nephew, a former US deputy special envoy for Iran involved in nuclear negotiations, and Karen Young, a scholar on the political economy of the Gulf states, the experts unpack the nuances of the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran. They delve into the oil market's reactions to geopolitical shifts, the uncertain future of U.S.-Iran relations, and the complexities surrounding Iran's nuclear capabilities amid ongoing regional tensions.
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Fragile Informal Ceasefire
- The ceasefire between Israel and Iran is informal and fragile with no detailed agreement in place.
- Both sides have significant uncertainties about the extent of damage to Iran's nuclear program and future moves.
GCC Unified, Regional Risk Elevated
- The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states show rare unity condemning Iran's missile strike on Qatar.
- The conflict threatens regional economic and social reforms by increasing perceived risk among expats and businesses.
Nuclear Threat Persists Post-Strikes
- Iran's nuclear program remains intact enough to pose a sustained threat despite damage from strikes.
- The risk of renewed hostilities persists as Iran reduces international inspection cooperation and refuses to surrender its program.