ChinaTalk Wagner, Two Years On (Kamil on Coups and Power)
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Jul 2, 2025 Kamil Galeev, a London-based historian and former classmate of Jordan's at Peking University, explores the intricacies of military coups and political power dynamics in Russia. He discusses the Wagner Group's failed rebellion in 2023 and how it reshaped Kremlin views on internal threats. Kamil draws intriguing parallels between historical coups and modern political tensions, emphasizing the influence of victimhood mentality on foreign policy decisions. He also addresses the barriers facing China's rise to hegemony, making for a compelling analysis of global power struggles.
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Russia's Coup Prevention System
- The Russian military is heavily controlled by an internal security agency to prevent coups.
- This layered control system has successfully stifled military insurrections since 1917.
Wagner Group's Unique Status
- Wagner was the first large military force in Russia not infiltrated by state security.
- Its rapid expansion in 2022 outpaced control mechanisms, creating an unprecedented threat.
Coups Require Invitation
- Successful military coups are almost always invited or solicited.
- Uninvited coups rarely succeed, explaining Wagner's failed rebellion despite its size.
