Macro Voices MacroVoices #492 Daniel Lacalle: The End of American Exceptionalism?
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Aug 7, 2025 
Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist at Tress and CIO of Alpha Strategy Consulting, shares his expertise on the shifting tides of global economics. He discusses the risks of recession and the complexities of U.S.-Europe relations amidst geopolitical tensions. The conversation dives into OPEC Plus's strategic maneuvers and the impact of sanctions on markets. Lacalle also offers insights on the future of commodities, including gold and copper, and how these factors might influence trading strategies in a changing economic landscape.
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Trade Negotiations Near Completion
- Trade negotiations are about 75% complete with main agreements mostly settled between the US and partners like the EU and Japan.
- Remaining details center on sector-specific tariff timings and investment pledges, signaling a near finish to a rapid trade negotiation series.
Global Bull Market Drivers
- Global markets are in a bull trend driven by aggressive rate cuts and rising money supply from over 20 central banks.
- Despite imperfect earnings, optimistic macro conditions encourage money flows back into equities.
Fed Rates Benefit Other Economies
- Fed's elevated rates while others cut create costly hedging and reduce US bond attractiveness.
- This situation acts as a gift to emerging markets and currencies like the euro and yen.