HousingWire Daily Mortgage rates fall after Powell’s Jackson Hole comments
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Aug 23, 2025 
In this engaging discussion, Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his insights into housing market trends, joins to unpack the fallout from Jerome Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole. They delve into how concerns about the labor market influenced a drop in mortgage rates. The conversation also touches on the delicate balancing act between inflation and employment, as well as the implications for future Federal Reserve policies. Mohtashami provides valuable context on predicting mortgage rates and the broader effects on the housing market.
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Labor Risk Drove Yields Lower
- Bond yields and mortgage rates fell because Powell emphasized labor risks over inflation, surprising markets.
- The bond market moved faster than the Fed, pricing in weaker labor and lower future policy.
Data Leads Fed, Cuts Narrow Yield Range
- The Fed cares about economic data before cutting rates because the bond market leads Fed action.
- Rate cuts narrow trading ranges for the 10-year and 30-year mortgage spreads, but inflation expectations cap how low yields fall.
Jobs Weakness Is A Rare Trigger
- Recent three-month job growth averaged only ~35,000, a rare and worrying signal for the labor market.
- The Fed sees itself as modestly restrictive and may cut only if labor weakens enough to justify easing despite elevated inflation.