The 2s/10s Treasury Spread 'Conundrum' [Ep. 136, Eurodollar University]

Oct 24, 2021

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PART 01: The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese currency. Now, with the 'debate' tabled till December, Beijing (and the world) are safe... for now.

PART 02: The US Treasury yield curve IS NOT inverted and, therefore, is not signaling a recession warning. But IT IS warning that the Federal Reserve's reasoning to "taper" its quantitative easing program (i.e. economic recovery/health) is unfounded. We saw this in 2018. And 2014. And 2005.

PART 03: A review of transcripts and recordings from the 1970s reveals that monetary and political authorities were unable to identify the source of inflation (international liquidity creation). The authorities didn't understand money in the 1970s, and they still don't.

---------SPONSOR----------
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements and yes, even Karl Marx.

-----SEE EPISODE 136------
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL

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----EP. 136 REFERENCES---
While The Fed Chases The Unemployment Rate, TIC’s Eurodollar Deflation Case Is Unusually Unambiguous: https://bit.ly/3G8Rgkr
The Curve Is Missing Something Big: https://bit.ly/3jm0lNa
The Power of Money Lurks In the Shadows: https://bit.ly/30EPSFP
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, head of global investment research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, Trevor Something listener. Art by David Parkins, coloured-pencil pamphleteer. Show produced by Terence, focused visuals. Podcast intro/outro is "Aurora Borealis" by Chill Cole found at Epidemic Sound.