CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax Tracking the economy and CRE through a government data blackout
Oct 16, 2025
Andrew Pabon, a director at Altus Group specializing in commercial real estate debt, joins to discuss the impact of a federal data slowdown on the economy and CRE market. He highlights alternative indicators for assessing labor markets and consumer behavior. Pabon delves into current trends in CRE credit, noting a resurgence in lender interest and transaction activity. He also shares insights on market liquidity across property types, emphasizing the potential for future fixed-rate deals amidst a financing landscape that can shift quickly.
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Restricted LMCI Reveals Labor Softening
- The Kansas City Fed published a restricted LMCI using 11 of 24 variables to estimate labor-market health in real time.
- The restricted LMCI forecast ~60k monthly payrolls and a 4.4% unemployment rate for September, signaling labor-market softening.
Consumers Pull Back On Revolving Credit
- Consumer credit growth slowed with revolving credit dropping sharply while non-revolving grew modestly.
- Elevated interest rates and softer wage growth are tightening household budgets and reducing discretionary spending.
Sentiment Erodes While Behavior Slows
- New York Fed and University of Michigan surveys show rising inflation expectations and weaker earnings outlooks.
- Households expect slower spending growth and higher job-risk, which may dampen demand for discretionary retail space.