HoldCo Builders How to Find 10x MOIC, 30%+ IRR Deals (Step-by-Step)
Nov 28, 2025
Explore groundbreaking insights from recent Yale data on investor outcomes. Discover why access is the key factor in achieving exceptional returns, rather than mere modeling. Mikk highlights the stark discrepancy between optimistic projections and real-world investor results. The discussion uncovers the rarity of high returns, with only a small fraction of deals driving profits. Understand how elite investors navigate the landscape and why the common strategy of 'spray and pray' often falls short. Get ready to rethink your approach to investment success!
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Access, Not Averages, Drives Returns
- A tiny number of winners drive most ETA returns, so averages mislead investors and searchers.
- Yale's investor-level data shows access, not modeling, is the primary determinant of outperformance.
Dinner Scene: Stanford Slide vs LP Reality
- Mikk paints a dinner scene contrasting an excited searcher citing Stanford averages and a seasoned LP who knows those averages don't represent real investor outcomes.
- The LP understands that a few giant winners, like the Magnificent Seven, actually carry headline returns.
Stanford Index Is Theoretical Max
- The Stanford study's averages assume perfect access and ideal allocations, which almost no investors have.
- Yale's case shows most investors fail to match Stanford-like returns due to real-world constraints.