Ian Curtiss, the designer of the new Riskgaming scenario "Powering Up," discusses China’s rise in the electric vehicle sector alongside Laurence Pevsner, director of programming. They highlight the competitive challenges faced by companies like Northvolt and GM. The duo dives into strategic lessons from gameplay and the vital role of foreign consultants in navigating complex automotive dynamics. They also touch on varying political and business strategies across regions, revealing insights on adapting to industry mistakes and the future of global tech.
China's electric vehicle market dominance stems from strategic investments and proactive engagement, presenting a significant challenge for Western automakers.
The simulation underscores the critical role of social capital and information dynamics in navigating China's complex political economy for business success.
Deep dives
Insights from the China EV Market
The discussion highlights significant lessons from the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly insights shared through an op-ed addressing why China's EV sector has made substantial advances over the last decade. Analysts note that despite warnings and signs of China's strategic efforts to bolster its emerging industries, such as EVs, many stakeholders in the West remained unaware or unprepared for the rapid developments. The op-ed emphasizes that a more proactive approach to investment in innovations and a focus on learning from these trends could enable countries to better compete. Furthermore, it advocates for a mindset that embraces market dynamics rather than relying solely on centralized planning.
The Challenges Facing U.S. and European Automakers
U.S. and EU automakers are struggling to compete against Chinese companies that dominate the EV sector, facing challenges revealed through real-world examples like General Motors’ significant write-downs in its China business. The competition has intensified as Chinese firms have rapidly increased their market presence and profitability, constructing a situation where traditional automakers are losing market share to domestic players. The game being discussed simulates these dynamics, revealing the difficulties foreign firms face in adapting to a landscape where competitors benefit from established supply chains and government support. Consequently, automakers are challenged to rethink strategies while contending with a shifting market landscape.
Role of Vice Mayors and Social Capital
The simulation reveals the strategic position of vice mayors in China, which focuses on attracting investments while navigating their relationships with companies and the central government. Vice mayors face the tightrope of securing financial support from foreign firms while also needing to gather critical information to report back to higher authorities. This complex dynamic underscores the importance of social capital or 'guanxi' in the Chinese political economy, as building relationships and trust can determine success in the negotiation processes. Players often find that maintaining investments or negotiating effectively requires a delicate balance that many fail to achieve due to the multifaceted nature of the local political landscape.
The Strategic Advantage of Information in the EV Game
In the simulation, the Shanghai Car Company shows a significant advantage afforded by its ability to continuously acquire and utilize information from foreign automakers, elaborating on the intricacies of information dynamics in business competences. Foreign firms, initially stronger in knowledge and resources, struggle to maintain their edge as the Chinese startup leverages any data shared to enhance its product development. Players often grapple with determining when to share critical information, as premature disclosure can diminish competitive advantage. This aspect reflects a broader reality in the global market where managing intellectual property and strategic partnerships directly impact sustainability and growth opportunities for companies.
We are really excited to announce the publication of our third and latest Riskgaming scenario, "Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance.” Designed by Ian Curtiss over the course of the last year, we started beta trials of the game a few months ago with dozens of playtesters and just hosted launch runthroughs across the United States in NYC, DC and SF as well as a worldwide tour in London, Romania and Tokyo. It was great fun bringing together dozens of policymakers, tech executives and journalists over the past few weeks.
While we previewed Powering Up on an episode back in October, now that we have played the game with so many diverse groups, we wanted to talk about some of the lessons learned from its design, the patterns of strategies we’ve witnessed among players and the wider implications of those strategies for how the world will change in the years ahead.
So we gathered together host Danny Crichton, Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and Ian himself live in our Menlo Park studio to talk about all the results. Come tune in, and then sign up so you can play the next scenario we release in 2025.
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