Joel Braunold, expert on Israeli-Palestinian conflict, discusses the crisis in Gaza, Israel's military operations, domestic politics impact, recent events like the International Court of Justice's actions, and where the crisis might be heading. They explore legislative developments in the US, funding for national security, US suspension of support for Anwar affecting Gaza aid, Biden administration's sanctions on West Bank violence, Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, and digital security service promotion.
International community closely monitoring and influencing Gaza crisis, providing aid with focus on Gaza.
Israeli political dynamics adding complexity to conflict, with internal debates on prioritizing hostage release.
Potential for regional plan involving Saudi Arabia, Israel, and US for peace process in Gaza, with uncertain success rate.
Deep dives
Current State of the Gaza Crisis
The conflict in Gaza is reaching a critical point as Israeli forces prepare to assault Rafah, a safe haven for displaced civilians. Negotiations for a ceasefire and long-term resolution have yet to yield significant progress. The Israeli government sees Rafah as essential for achieving total victory and wants to secure the border with Egypt. However, concerns about humanitarian crises and the safety of Gaza civilians have been raised by the international community. The pressure to reach a deal before Ramadan adds urgency to the situation.
Interplay of Politics and Negotiations
The political dynamics within the Israeli government are adding complexity to the conflict. Prime Minister Netanyahu's relationship with his defense minister and the war cabinet is strained. There are differing opinions on whether to prioritize a hostage deal or the defeat of Hamas. The families of remaining hostages are becoming advocates for their release, while some officials question the effectiveness of their advocacy. The political divide in Israel, shaped by past protests, is influencing positions on the hostage issue. The outcome of negotiations and decisions about prioritizing hostage release could have significant implications for the government stability.
International Response and Sanctions
The international community, particularly the United States, is closely monitoring and influencing the Gaza crisis. Efforts are being made to provide aid to the region, with a focus on Gaza. The United States has also implemented an executive order enabling the freezing of assets for individuals involved in West Bank violence. Although it began with a limited number of designations, the order has potential for broader implications. The Israeli government is coming to terms with the impact of this new sanctions regime, as it realizes the reach and consequences of such measures.
Potential pause and hostage deal as part of a larger regional plan
There is potential for a pause in the conflict and a hostage deal, which would be a significant step towards a larger regional plan. This plan involves a potential normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, with the United States providing security assurances to both parties. The aim is to create a new regional compact that includes a reformed Palestinian government and addresses the issue of reconstruction in Gaza. The plan is seen as a way to achieve a political process, with the possibility of recognizing Palestine as a state in Gaza and the West Bank. However, the Israelis are concerned about rewarding terrorism, and the success of this plan is uncertain, with an estimated 20% chance of success.
Legislative action in the United States potentially impacting the conflict
There are developments in the United States that could affect the conflict. A supplemental funding bill for national security issues is being discussed, which includes security assistance for Israel and humanitarian assistance for Palestinians. However, the funding for Palestinian assistance is not firmly designated. This bill could impact the conflict and the Israelis and Palestinians involved. Additionally, there are discussions about defunding the UN agency UNRWA, which provides support to Palestinians. These actions by the US Congress could potentially impact the conflict and the ability to cooperate with Israel in the future.
The conflict in Gaza is headed toward a critical juncture. Israeli political leaders have signaled their intent to assault Rafah, one of the final safe havens for displaced Gazan civilians—a move that U.S. and other international leaders fear could trigger a humanitarian crisis, or the long-term displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. Meanwhile, negotiations for both a ceasefire and a longer term resolution of the crisis are ongoing, but have little to show thus far.
To discuss the many moving pieces of the Gaza conflict, Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson sat down once again with Joel Braunold, Managing Director at the S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace and someone who has long been involved in Middle East peace efforts. They discussed the current state of Israel’s military operations, how it is impacting (and being impacted by) domestic politics in Israel and elsewhere, and the significance of recent events ranging from the International Court of Justice’s grant of provisional measures to the Biden administration’s efforts to sanction the perpetrators of West Bank settler violence—all with an eye for better understanding where this crisis may yet be headed.
