
The Foreign Affairs Interview How Liberal Democracy Can Survive an Age of Spiraling Crises
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Dec 18, 2025 Daron Acemoglu, a Nobel Prize-winning economist known for his insights on institutions and economic development, discusses the multifaceted crisis facing liberal democracy. He explores the limited economic impact of AI, emphasizing the need for thoughtful adoption to avoid a tech-driven divide. Acemoglu critiques U.S. strategies undermining innovation and highlights China’s mix of strengths and weaknesses in tech. He advocates for stronger local institutions and a working-class liberalism that prioritizes community and shared prosperity in rebuilding trust and navigating crises.
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AI's Near-Term Economic Impact Is Modest
- AI automation yields modest productivity gains because it mainly replaces workers and reduces costs by ~20–30%.
- Integration into organizations and diffusion constraints limit AI's near-term GDP impact, so modest overall growth is likely.
AI Investments Fueled By A Race Dynamic
- Current heavy AI investment partly reflects a winner-take-all race rather than present profit opportunities.
- Firms pour cash betting on future dominance rather than immediate production-facing returns.
History Warns Of Painful Technology Diffusion
- History shows technology spreads slowly and creates concentrated winners and losers before broad benefits arrive.
- Past revolutions often harmed workers initially, so AI may repeat painful distributional patterns without institutional steering.

