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HousingWire Daily
Logan Mohtashami on the market’s response to trade war headlines
Feb 5, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst renowned for his deep insights into the housing market, joins to discuss how trade war headlines influence market dynamics. He unpacks the unexpected impact of presidential announcements and explores how tariffs trigger shifts in currency and bond yields. The conversation highlights challenges in the housing sector due to rising materials costs and labor shortages. Additionally, they dive into the critical role of labor data on mortgage rates and the ramifications of the CFPB's potential shutdown on mortgage regulations.
25:46
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Quick takeaways
- The market's unexpected stability in mortgage rates despite trade war turbulence showcases the complex interplay between tariffs, currency strength, and market dynamics.
- Signs of a weakening job market, particularly in job openings and wage growth, may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions moving forward.
Deep dives
Market Reactions to Trade War Developments
The recent trade war developments have demonstrated how volatile market reactions can be to tariff news. Initially, the announcement of a one-month delay in tariffs led to speculation, but subsequent news caused significant fluctuations in stock futures, oil, and lumber prices. For example, mortgage rates remained unexpectedly stable despite the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, defying forecasts of impact from ongoing negotiations. This situation highlights the complexities of market dynamics, particularly how currency strength can counteract intended export benefits from tariffs.
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