Missiles don’t land, but Fed doves fly

Tuesday 24th June 2025

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An Iranian attack on US air bases in Qatar and Iraq actually forced oil prices lower. Much lower. Why? Well, even before it was confirmed by President Trump, it appears the attacks were orchestrated. That was confirmed when the President posted as much on social media, adding that ‘Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same’. That message helped push equities higher towards the US close.

The other influence today has been comments from the Fed’s Michelle Bowman, suggesting a July rate cut made sense but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent outlines, there are a few obstacles to come before that happens.

It’s a busy day for data releases today, as well as the NATO meeting in the Hague. Will they commit to defence spending at 5% of GDP by 2035?

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