Missile diplomacy: What is a winning strategy in Ukraine?
Sep 20, 2024
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In this insightful discussion, journalist Christopher Miller from the Financial Times, military analyst Michael Kofman, and OSUN fellow Olga Tokariuk dive into Ukraine's struggle for military support. They explore the implications of long-range missile systems, the intense battles in Kursk and Donbass, and the evolving strategies as winter approaches. The trio also delves into the political reshuffling in Zelensky's government and the societal challenges of youthful conscription. Their analysis sheds light on the complexities of the conflict and the possible paths forward.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine highlights the fluidity of frontline dynamics, making military and psychological strategies crucial for sustaining morale.
The potential use of long-range missiles could significantly alter the war's dynamics, yet delays in approval raise concerns about Russia’s defensive preparations.
Deep dives
The Dynamic Battlefield Situation in Ukraine
The situation on the ground in Ukraine, particularly in regions like Kursk and Donbass, remains highly fluid and tense. Ukrainian forces continue to engage in counterattacks, with recent efforts aimed at maintaining control over territories gained during offensives. Russian military actions focus on strategic towns and advancing their positions while inflicting damage on Ukrainian defenses. This constant shifting of front lines poses significant challenges for both sides, as each struggles to capitalize on momentary advantages.
Ukraine's Strategic Military Moves and Psychological Impact
Ukraine's recent operations have prompted discussions about their psychological effects on both the military and civilian morale. The ability to conduct unexpected incursions into Russian territory has showcased Ukrainian adaptability, boosting national and international confidence. Additionally, capturing Russian prisoners during these offensives signifies a tactical win and provides leverage for future negotiations and prisoner exchanges. However, the sustainability of this morale boost amidst ongoing hardships presents a fundamental challenge for Ukraine.
The Role of Long-range Missiles and Western Support
The potential introduction of long-range missiles, such as Storm Shadow or Scalp, into the conflict is a significant topic of discussion for altering the war's dynamics. These capabilities could target Russian logistics and critical infrastructure, thereby impacting Russia's operational capacity. However, there is concern that the delay in official approval might allow Russia to prepare defenses against such strikes. The broader strategic alignment among Western allies regarding military support for Ukraine is crucial for determining the effectiveness of these capabilities.
Political Changes and Their Implications in Ukraine
Recent shifts within the Ukrainian cabinet, while seemingly significant, largely serve to consolidate the power of President Zelensky and his closest advisors. The continuity of certain key figures amidst these changes suggests stability rather than transformation in the political landscape. There is a pressing need for enhanced political and military strategies, especially as Ukraine prepares for the sustained conflict ahead. The upcoming U.S. elections and external pressures will further influence Ukraine's military and political decisions moving forward.
As Ukraine waits to hear if it can use Western missiles to strike deep into Russia, we explore the current state of the Kursk offensive and the front lines in Donbas, and ask what if any strategy might change the course of the war into 2025. Guest host James Nixey is joined by the FT’s Christopher Miller and military analyst Michael Kofman. With them is Olga Tokariuk, the OSUN academy fellow with our Ukraine Forum.